{"id": "1204404348492120067", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-25T03:00:00Z", "msg": "486\nWTPZ44 KNHC 250237\nTCDEP4\n \nTropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092026\n800 PM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026\n \nBased on the most recent satellite imagery, it appears that the \nmoderate west-northwesterly shear could be starting to impact \nIselle, as the bulk of the convection is being pushed away from the \ncenter. The cyclone still has a training curved band that extends \npretty far south on the east side. The most recent subjective Dvorak \nclassification from TAFB is T3.5/55 kt, and the objective satellite \nintensity estimates range from 50 to 67 kt. Based on the given data, \nthe initial intensity is being kept at 60 kt for this advisory.\n \nThe initial motion estimate is unchanged from the previous advisory,\nnorthwestward, or 315/10 kt.  A mid-level ridge north of Iselle is\nforecast to strengthen, causing Iselle to turn west-northwestward on\nTuesday, and that motion should then continue through the end of the\nweek.  The latest NHC track forecast is quite similar to the\nprevious one, and lies very close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus\n(HCCA) and the Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean (GDMI).\n\nThe storm is still over warm waters and within a moist environment, \nbut with moderate west-northwesterly vertical wind shear, there is \nlikely a limit to how much strength Iselle could gain. It is still \npossible that Iselle could get to hurricane intensity, however, the \ntime to do so is limited. After the next 12 h, the environment is \nexpected to become more hostile as the wind shear, dry air, and \ncooler sea-surface temperatures will have a negative impact on the \ncyclone's intensity. The simulated ECMWF and GFS satellite imagery \nsuggest that Iselle could become a a remnant low as early as \nWednesday night and then could be dissipate around day 4. It is \npossible that this system could dissipate even sooner than what is \ncurrently forecasted.  \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  25/0300Z 20.1N 118.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  25/1200Z 20.7N 119.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  26/0000Z 21.3N 121.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  26/1200Z 21.8N 123.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  27/0000Z 22.6N 125.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 60H  27/1200Z 23.2N 127.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  28/0000Z 23.6N 129.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}