{"msg": "533\nAXNT20 KNHC 250002\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Tue Aug 25 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n2330 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nCentral Subtropical Atlantic (Invest AL95): Satellite-wind data \nindicate that the low-level circulation associated with an area of\nlow pressure centered a few hundred nautical miles east- \nsoutheast of Bermuda remains broad and somewhat elongated. Fresh \nto strong southerly winds are noted mainly on the NE side of the \nlow, north of 25N between 52W and 60W, where seas are 5 to 8 ft, \nhighest just north of the area. Scattered moderate isolated strong\nconvection is noted from 22N to 35N between 52W and 60W. \nEnvironmental conditions are only marginally conducive for further\ndevelopment, but this system could become a short- lived tropical\ndepression or storm through Tuesday while it moves northward then\nnorth-northeastward, and well northeast of Bermuda. By Wednesday,\nthe low is forecast to move over cold waters, ending its \nformation chances. This system has a medium chance of tropical \ncyclone formation in the next 48 hours. \nEastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): A tropical wave and \nassociated area of low pressure have exited Africa today, and are \nover the far eastern Atlantic a few hundred miles southeast of \nthe Cabo Verde islands. This system is producing scattered\nmoderate isolated strong convection from 07N to 14N E of 27W.\nPresently these showers and thunderstorms do not show signs of\norganization. However, this system could become a tropical \ndepression during the next few days while it moves westward to \nwest- northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central\ntropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions could become less \nconducive for development by the weekend. This system has a medium\nchance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 7 days.\nPlease refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: \nhttps://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details on\nthese features.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA far eastern Atlantic tropical wave and associated area of low \npressure has moved away from the west coast of Africa , and is\nnear 19W, and is described above. 1010 mb low pressure is \nanalyzed near the wave at 11N18.5W.\nAn central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 43W, south of\n19N, moving westward around 15 kt. Please refer to the Monsoon \nTrough/ITCZ section below for details on any nearby convection as \nit is elongated along the ITCZ axis.\nAn Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 60W south of 21N, \nmoving westward around 10 kt. Convection near the wave is limited, \nhowever some widely scattered showers near the axis are occurring\ninland over Venezuela. \nA central Caribbean tropical wave is near 72W south of 21N to \nnorthwest Venezuela, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered \nmoderate convection is noted near the wave over land, across\nHispaniola, and over NW Venezuela and NE Colombia. \n \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of \nAfrica near 14N16.5W and continues southwestward to low pressure\nnear 11N18.5W 1010 mb to 12N37W to 08N45W. The ITCZ extends from\n08N45W to 06N51W to 08N59W. Aside from the convection associated \nwith the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate  \nisolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 36W\nand 57W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA large cluster of moderate to strong thunderstorms has shifted\nsouthward throughout the afternoon and is now along and within \n120 nm of the coasts from Panama City, FL to the Atchafalaya Bay,\nLA. 1018 mb high pressure is centered over the central Gulf near\n26N87W, and is generally producing light to gentle anticyclonic winds\nacross the basin, except moderate NE winds in the eastern Bay of \nCampeche. Slight seas of 3 ft or less prevail over the basin per \nbuoy observations. \nFor the forecast, weak high pressure will remain centered over NE\nGulf through Wed, with the western Atlantic ridge remaining \ndominate over the basin thereafter. This will maintain gentle to \nlocally moderate winds and slight seas into the weekend. A surface\ntrough will generate locally fresh winds north and west of the \nYucatan Peninsula in the early evenings through the period. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nThe pressure gradient between weak high pressure over the western\nAtlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America \ncontinues to allow for moderate to fresh trade winds over the \ncentral Caribbean from the coast of Hispaniola to the coasts of NW\nVenezuela and northern Colombia, with a narrow zone of strong\nwinds along the coasts near the Gulf of Venezuela and far NE\nColombia. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft with these trades. \nModerate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere from 11N \nto 18N, with gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas \nelsewhere. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is \noccurring from 09N to 15.5N W of 80W, including over portions of \nnorthern Costa Rica, and Nicaragua.\nFor the forecast, the current pattern across the region will \ncontinue to maintain fresh to strong trades and resultant rough \nseas over the south- central Caribbean this week. Elsewhere, \nmainly moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail, \naside from light to gentle winds and slight seas in the NW part of\nthe basin. Winds will pulse at times through the week following \npassages several tropical waves that will quickly move west across\nthe basin. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease refer to the Special Features section for more details on\nlow pressure, Invest AL95, with the potential for tropical \ncyclone formation, and on Invest AL96, a tropical wave that has \nrecently emerged off Africa.\nA weak surface trough is analyzed across the western Atlantic\nextending SW through 31N74W to the NW Bahamas. Isolated to widely\nscattered showers and a few thunderstorms are within 60 nm of this\ntrough. Moderate SW winds are occurring north of this through.\n1018 mb high pressure is east of this feature near 29N72W. South\nof this high, fresh E-SE winds are noted from the southern \nBahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands to near the approach to the \nWindward Passage. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere \nnorth of 20N and west of 61W. Slight to moderate seas prevail \nnorth of 20N and west of 61W. Scattered moderate convection is\nnoted from 26N to 31N between 67W and 73W, supported by an upper\nlevel low to the SW of Bermuda.\nElongated low pressure and attendant surface troughs prevail over\nthe waters N of 23N between 53W and 62W and described above with\nInvest AL96.\nAnother pair of weak surface troughs are in the NE portion of the\nbasin from near the Canary Islands westward as the remnants of an\nold frontal boundary. No significant convection is noted near \nthese features. Otherwise, broad high pressure ridging prevails. \nModerate to fresh trades dominate from north of the monsoon trough\nand ITCZ between Africa and 56W, with 5 to 8 ft seas. Winds are \nmainly moderate and seas moderate across any remainder waters.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, low pressure of 1016 mb centered\nnear 30N61W is producing scattered moderate convection and strong\nS winds E of its center to about 52W. This low is showing signs \nof tropical organization, but will move N and out of the area by \ntonight. Additional development of this system is possible, and a \nshort- lived tropical depression or storm could form through Tue \nwell E or NE of Bermuda. Regardless of development, conditions \nwill improve over area waters by Tue as the system moves away. \nElsewhere, weak high pressure will prevail, with moderate to \nfresh trades will prevail S of 23N, with slightly higher winds \npulsing at times as the northern extent of tropical waves most \nwestward across the far southern waters into the weekend.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1204373982870437891", "issued": "2026-08-25T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1204373982870437891"}