{"msg": "950\nAXPZ20 KNHC 242155\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Mon Aug 24 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2030 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Iselle: At 2100 UTC, the center of Iselle was\nlocated near 19.2N 118.0W at 2100 UTC, moving northwest at 11 \nkt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum \nsustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are \nestimated near 26 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is \nnoted from 18N to 21.5N between 115W and 119W, while scattered to\nlocally numerous moderate isolated strong convection extends \nelsewhere from 14N to 23N between 109W and 120W. Iselle is \nexpected to continue moving northwestward through tonight, \nfollowed by a gradual turn toward the west-northwest on Tuesday. \nSome strengthening is expected tonight through Tue, and Iselle is\nexpected to become a short- lived hurricane late tonight through\nTue. Gradual weakening is then forecast starting on Tuesday as \nIselle encounters increasing upper level wind shear. Swell \ngenerated by Iselle has begun to reach the west coast of the Baja\nCalifornia Peninsula today and will spread northward and build \nacross the Baja waters and coasts today through Tue night, then \nsubside on Wed. This S-SW swell will likely produce large and \npowerful surf and life-threatening rip current conditions. Please\nconsult products from your local weather office.\nTropical Depression Ten-E: The small area of low pressure \nlocated well to the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja \nCalifornia Peninsula, and to the SW of Iselle, has be classified\nas Tropical Depression Ten-E. Showers and thunderstorms have \nincreased significantly near the center today, with numerous\nmoderate to strong convection occurring within 75 nm of the\ncenter. At 2100 UTC, the center Ten-E was located near 13.5N \n120.8W, moving north at 7 kt. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 \nkt with gusts to 40 kt. Minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. \nTen-E is expected to move north- northeastward later tonight \nthrough Tue and begin to accelerate. Some strengthening is \nexpected, and Ten-E is forecast to become a tropical storm \ntonight through Tue. Ten-E will gradually become entrained in the\nbroader circulation of Iselle, and move northward towards the \nsoutheastern side of Iselle. As this occurs, the same vertical \nwind shear that will lead to the weakening of Iselle, will lead \nto the weakening and dissipation of the much smaller Ten-E by \nWed. \nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued\nby the National Hurricane Center at website -\nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC\nForecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for \nmore details on these two systems.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is along 99W, from 03N to 17N, moving westward \nat 15 to 20 kt. Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated \nstrong convection is noted from 02.5N to 17N between 93W and \n103W.\nA tropical wave is along 107W, from 05N to 18N, moving westward \nat 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 08N to \n16N between 103W and 110W.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 09.5N74.5W to 07N80W to 09N94W \nto 05.5N104W to 09N111W, then resumes SW of Iselle from 15N120W \nto low pres near 13N121W 1006 mb to 11N124W to 11N133W to beyond\n07N140W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical \nwaves, T.D. Ten-E and T.S. Iselle described above, scattered \nmoderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04.5N to 10N E\nof 93W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from \n02.5N to 15N W of 118W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information\nabout T.S. Iselle. \nTropical Storm Iselle is near 19.2N 118.0W at 2 PM PDT, moving \nnorthwest at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts\nto 75 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Iselle has\nweakened the ridge extending into the Baja offshore waters, \nleading to light to gentle winds across the Baja offshore waters \nN of 22.5N extending into the coast. Strong to Tropical Storm \nforce winds and very rough seas associated with Iselle are \naffecting the outer offshore waters S of 22N and W of 112W, and \nacross the Revillagigedo Islands. S-SW swell from Iselle has \nbegun to reach the coast of Baja Sur, with seas across those near\nshore waters 6 to 8 ft increasing to 9 to 15 ft across the outer\nperiphery of Iselle to the east. Moderate to fresh SE winds and \nmoderate seas have shifted westward across the outer offshore \nwaters of Jalisco, while moderate to fresh NW winds prevail along\nthe coasts of Michoacan. Seas over these SW offshores are \nmoderate in SE swell. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong N to NE gap\nwinds persist across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downwind to \nabout 14N with seas to 7 ft. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms\nassociated with a tropical wave are shifting northwestward \nacross the nearshore waters of western Oaxaca and Guerrero and\nare moving inland.\nFor the forecast, Iselle will continue moving northwestward and\nexit the Mexican offshore waters this evening, reaching near \n20.1N 119.4 as a minimal hurricane tonight, reach near 20.9N\n121.3W Tue midday, then steadily weaken to a tropical storm near\n21.4N 123.2W Tue night, reach near 21.9N 124.9W midday Wed, then\ncontinue west-northwestward, reaching near 22.9N 128.9W midday Thu\nas a post-tropical remnant low. Large southerly swell will move \nthrough the Baja offshore waters and reach the coasts through \nWed morning. Elsewhere, fresh northerly gap winds will continue \nto pulse to strong speeds across Tehuantepec region mainly during\nthe overnight and early morning hours through the upcoming \nweekend, with seas occasionally building to 8 ft.  \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh to strong NE to E gap winds continue across the Papagayo \nregion and downwind to near 91W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft.\nModerate to locally fresh winds then continue to near 95W. \nModerate or weaker winds are found elsewhere, with moderate seas \n5 ft or less in S swell. Scattered thunderstorms extends from \nthe coast of SE Costa Rica and western Panama westward to 90W,\nwhile a cluster of strong thunderstorms is just offshore of the\ncoast of Colombia along 06N.\nFor the forecast, high pressure will persist over the eastern \nGulf of America and northwestern Caribbean throughout the\nupcoming week, leading to fresh NE to E gap winds pulsing to \nstrong speeds over the Papagayo region each evening and night. \nModerate to fresh winds extending well downwind of Papagayo will \nimpact the outer waters offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala \nthrough the end of the week. South of the monsoon trough, gentle \nto locally moderate winds will persist through Fri night. Cross-\nequatorial SW swell will move into the area waters Thu night\nthrough Fri.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information about\nT.S. Iselle and newly formed Tropical Depression Ten-E. \nHigh pressure of 1021 mb located near 32N140W extends a broad ridge\nsoutheastward across the northern forecast waters to offshore of\nBaja Norte. Under the influence of this system, and west of \nIselle, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are observed from\n11N to 26N and W of 120W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate \nseas in mixed swell prevail elsewhere to the north, while gentle\nto moderate southerly winds prevail S of the monsoon trough.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Iselle will continue moving \nnorthwestward and reach near 20.1N 119.4 as a minimal hurricane \ntonight, reach near 20.9N 121.3W Tue midday, then steadily weaken\nto a tropical storm near 21.4N 123.2W Tue night, reaching near \n21.9N 124.9W midday Wed, then continue west- northwestward, \nreaching near 22.9N 128.9W midday Thu as a post-tropical remnant\nlow.\nAn area of low pressure is expected to develop well south of the\nsouthern tip of the Baja California Peninsula during the middle \npart of the week. Gradual development is expected thereafter, and\na tropical depression is likely to form later this week or over \nthe weekend while the system moves generally west-northwestward \nat 10 to 15 kt.\nLooking ahead, another area of low pressure could form well \noffshore of Central America late this week. Environmental \nconditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this \nsystem over the weekend while it moves westward to west-\nnorthwestward at 10 to 15 mph well offshore of southern Mexico. \nThis system has a low chance for tropical cyclone formation \nthrough 7 days.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1204348997106466819", "issued": "2026-08-24T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1204348997106466819"}