{"id": "1204333174723051523", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-24T21:00:00Z", "msg": "644\nWTPZ45 KNHC 242035\nTCDEP5\n \nTropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102026\n200 PM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026\n\nThe small area of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the \nsouth-southwest of Tropical Storm Iselle (Invest EP91) has had a \nwell-defined surface circulation since last night, confirmed by \nscatterometer passes.  Visible satellite imagery shows that the \ncirculation continues to be well-defined.  Over the past 12 hours, \nthunderstorm activity has increased significantly over the center, \nand at 18Z, TAFB provided a classification of T2.0/30 kt.  \nFurthermore, a recent GPMI overpass highlights the curved banding \nstructure of the convection.  Thus, Tropical Depression Ten-E has \nformed.\n\nTrack guidance is in good agreement on a north-northeastward motion \nover the next 12 hours, with a bend toward the north and some \nacceleration in 12-24 h as the circulation of Tropical Storm Iselle \ndraws in Tropical Depression Ten-E.  The NHC track forecast is near \nthe HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA), the Google DeepMind Ensemble \nMean (GDMI) and the Simple Consensus (TVCN).  The forecast is also \nnear the average of the latest GFS and ECMWF models.\n\nSome slight strengthening is possible since the depression is over \nwarm water and within a moist environment.  Some of the global \nmodel fields show the cyclone attaining tropical-storm-force winds \nover the next 12 h, and the NHC forecast follows suit.  Every model \nshows this system dissipating by hour 36, and the official forecast \nwill also show dissipation by that time.  Iselle should open up \ninto a trough by hour 36 as northerly vertical wind shear increases \nas it moves closer to Iselle.\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  24/2100Z 13.5N 120.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  25/0600Z 14.9N 120.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  25/1800Z 18.1N 119.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}