{"id": "1204332683045994499", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-24T21:00:00Z", "msg": "610\nWTPA43 PHFO 242032\nTCDCP3\n \nTropical Depression Moke Discussion Number  18\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP022026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 AM HST Mon Aug 24 2026\n\nA large burst of convection has formed on the western side of Moke, \nwith little convection elsewhere due to dry air.  Satellite \nintensity estimates are basically unchanged from earlier, so the \ninitial wind speed remains 30 kt.  While many convective bursts can \nlead to intensification, some of these strong bursts can actually \ncause the system to weaken due to dry air entrainment and strong \ndownbursts distorting the low-level circulation.  All of the \nmodels suggest that this is the last significant burst, and thus the \nsystem is likely to either open up in a trough or cease organized \ndeep convection tonight.  Thus no changes were made to the intensity \nor dissipation forecast of Moke.\n\nThe depression continues moving just north of due west at about 14 \nkt.  There are no changes to the forecast as a strong high pressure \narea steers the storm on the same general path for the next day or \ntwo.  Even though Moke is well southwest of the Hawaiian Islands, \nperiods of heavy rain could still cause flash flooding across \nportions of the Big Island today.\n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Localized heavy rain associated with Tropical Depression Moke \nwill continue over the Hawaiian Islands today.  This rainfall may \nproduce areas of flash flooding for portions of the Big Island, \nincluding flood-prone and low-lying locations, as well as urban \nareas.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  24/2100Z 15.7N 161.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  25/0600Z 16.1N 163.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  25/1800Z 16.6N 166.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}