{"msg": "622\nAXPZ20 KNHC 241604 CCA\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Mon Aug 24 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1530 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Iselle is centered near 18.5N 117.1W at 1500 UTC,\nmoving northwest at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is\n992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 \nkt. Peak seas are near 24 ft. Numerous moderate to strong \nconvection is noted from 15N to 19.50N between 114W and 118W,\nwhile scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong\nconvection extends elsewhere from 06.5N to 20.5N between 112.5W\nand 127W. Iselle is expected to continue moving northwestward through\ntonight, followed by a gradual turn toward the west- northwest \non Tuesday. Some strengthening is expected over the next day or \nso, and Iselle could become a short-lived hurricane tonight\nthrough Tue morning. Gradual weakening is then forecast starting\non Tuesday. Swell generated by Iselle has begun to reach the \nwest coast of the Baja California Peninsula this morning and will\nspread northward and build across the Baja waters and coasts\ntoday through Tue night. This S-SW swell will likely produce\nlarge and powerful surf and life- threatening rip current \nconditions. Please consult products from your local weather \noffice.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued\nby the National Hurricane Center at website -\nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest\nIselle NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at\nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nCentral East Pacific (EP91): A broad area of low pressure \nlocated well to the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja \nCalifornia Peninsula is producing some disorganized showers and \nthunderstorms. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed a low\npressure center near 12N121W estimated at 1007 mb, with a broad\nfetch of fresh to locally strong S to SW winds within 300 nm S\nthrough E of the low. Associated convection is about the monsoon\ntrough in that area and described above with Iselle. Environmental\nconditions could still support the development of a short-lived \ntropical depression during the next day or so while the system \nmoves generally northward, before it becomes absorbed by Tropical\nStorm Iselle. This system has a medium chance for tropical \ncyclone formation through 48 hrs, and also through 7 days.\nPlease refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at \nwebsite: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more \ndetails on these systems.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is along 97W, from 03N to 17N, moving westward \nat 15 kt. Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong\nconvection is noted from 02.5N to 16N between 93W and 101.5W.\nA tropical wave is along 105W, from 03N to 18N, moving westward \nat 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 11N to \n15N between 103W and 106W.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10.5N72W to 06.5N80W to 08N88W \nto 06.5N105W to 09N112W, then resumes SW of Iselle from 14N118W\nto low pres near 12N121W 1007 mb to beyond 08N140W. Aside from \nthe convection related to the tropical waves, Invest area EP91 \nand T.S. Iselle described above, scattered moderate to strong \nconvection is found from from 05.5N to 09N E of 90W. Scattered\nmoderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 13N W \nof 127W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information\nabout T.S. Iselle and Invest area EP91. \nTropical Storm Iselle is near 18.5N 117.1W at 8 AM PDT, moving \nnorthwest at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to \n65 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Iselle has \nweakened the ridge extending into the Baja offshore waters, leading \nto light to gentle winds across the Baja offshore waters N of 22.5N \nextending into the coast. Strong to Tropical Storm force winds and \nvery rough seas associated with Iselle are affecting the outer \noffshore waters S of 21.5N and W of 11.5W, and across the \nRevillagigedo Islands. S-SW swell from Iselle has begun to reach the \ncoast of Baja Sur, with seas across those near shore waters are 6 \ntop 7 ft building to 8 to 12 ft across the outer periphery of Iselle \nto the SE. Moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas have shifted \nwestward across the outer offshore waters of Jalisco, while moderate \nto fresh NW winds prevail along the coasts of Michoacan and \nGuerrero. Seas over the SW offshores are moderate in SE swell. \nOtherwise, fresh to strong N gap winds persist across the Gulf of \nTehuantepec and downwind to about 13.5N with seas to 8 ft. Scattered \nto numerous thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave are \nshifting westward across the near and offshore waters of western \nOaxaca and eastern Guerrero. \nFor the forecast, Iselle will continue moving northwestward and\nexit the Mexican offshore waters late this afternoon, reaching\nnear 19.4N 118.3W late this afternoon as a minimal hurricane,\nreach near 20.5N 120.2W Tue morning, weaken to a tropical storm \nnear 21.1N 122.1W late Tue afternoon, reach near 21.5N 123.8W \nWed morning, then continue west-northwestward, reaching near  \n22.5N 127.6W Thu morning. Large southerly swell will move through\nthe Baja offshore waters and reach the coasts today through Wed\nmorning. Elsewhere Fresh northerly gap winds will continue to \npulse to strong speeds across Tehuantepec region mainly during \nthe overnight and early morning hours through the upcoming \nweekend, with seas occasionally building to 8 ft.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh to strong NE to E gap winds continue across the Papagayo \nregion and downwind to near 90W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft.\nModerate to locally fresh winds then continue to near 95W. \nModerate or weaker winds are found elsewhere, with moderate seas \nin S swell. Scattered thunderstorms extends from the coast of SE\nCosta Rica westward to 90W. \nFor the forecast, high pressure will persist over the eastern \nGulf of America and northwestern Caribbean throughout the\nupcoming week, leading to fresh NE to E gap winds pulsing to \nstrong speeds over the Papagayo region each evening and night. \nModerate to fresh winds extending well downwind of Papagayo will \nimpact the outer waters offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala \nthrough the end of the week. South of the monsoon trough, gentle \nto locally moderate winds will persist through Fri night. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information about\nT.S. Iselle and Invest area EP91. \nHigh pressure of 1022 mb located near 32N145W extends a ridge \nsoutheastward across the northern forecast waters to offshore of\nBaja Norte. Under the influence of this system, and outside of \nIselle, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are observed from\n10N to 26N and W of 120W. Fresh NE to E winds are seen from 10N \nto 15N W of 130W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in \nmixed swell prevail elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, an area of low pressure is expected to develop\nwell south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula \nduring the middle part of the week. Gradual development is \nexpected thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form \nlater this week or over the weekend while the system moves \ngenerally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt.\nLooking ahead, another area of low pressure could form well \noffshore of Central America late this week. Environmental \nconditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this \nsystem over the weekend while it moves westward to west-\nnorthwestward at 10 to 15 mph well offshore of southern Mexico. \nThis system has a low chance for tropical cyclone formation \nthrough 7 days.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1204279887828811779", "issued": "2026-08-24T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1204279887828811779"}