{"msg": "361\nAXNT20 KNHC 241553\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Mon Aug 24 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1430 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nCentral Subtropical Atlantic (Invest-AL95): A broad 1016 mb area \nof low pressure centered a few hundred nautical miles east-\nsoutheast of Bermuda near 30.5N60.5W continues to show signs of \norganization. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is\nnoted from 20N to 31N between 48W and 61W. Fresh to strong winds\nare noted mainly on the NE side of the low, north of 29N between \n55W and 61W where seas are 5 to locally 8 ft just north of the \narea. Additional development of the low is possible, and this \nsystem could become a short-lived tropical depression or storm \nduring the next couple of days while it moves northward and north-\nnortheastward, well northeast of Bermuda. This system has a \nmedium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours \nand through the next 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC \nTropical Weather Outlook at website: \nhttps://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has emerged off the west\ncoast of Africa near 18W south of 22N, moving westward 15 to 20 kt.\nScattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is \nnoted from 05N to 17N between 15W and 25W. Environmental \nconditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for \ndevelopment, and a tropical depression could form by the middle to\nlatter portions of the week while the system moves generally \nwestward at 15 to 20 kt across the eastern and central tropical \nAtlantic.\nAn central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 41.5W south \nof 19N, moving westward around 15 kt. Please refer to the Monsoon\nTrough/ITCZ section below for details on any nearby convection as\nit is elongated along the ITCZ axis.\nA Tropical N Atlantic offshore waters tropical wave has its axis \nalong 59W south of 21N, moving westward around 10 kt. Convection\nnear the wave is limited however some isolated to widely scattered\nshowers near the axis are possible.\nA central Caribbean tropical wave is near 71W south of 21N across\ncentral portions of the Dominican Republic to northwest Venezuela,\nmoving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is\nnoted from 17N to 18.5N between 69W and 72W.\n \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of \nAfrica near 14.5N17W and continues west-soutwhestward to 12N33W.\nThe ITCZ extends from 12N133W to 10N40W, then resumes west of a\ntropical wave from 08N42W to along the coast of northern South\nAmerica to 06N50W, with another segment to the west just inland of\nthe Caribbean coast. Aside from the convection associated with \nthe tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong \nconvection is noted within 180 nm either side of the ITCZ between\n33W and 54W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nWeak surface ridging that is anchored by a 1017 mb high center \nlocated near 26N89W is generally allowing for anticyclonic light \nto gentle winds across the basin, except moderate in the eastern\nBay of Campeche to the western Yucatan Peninsula. Seas of slight \nstate remain over the basin per buoy observations. Scattered \nshowers and isolated thunderstorms are confined the Bay of \nCampeche south of 21N. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over\nportions of the N-central and NE Gulf due to a weak low level \ntrough.\nFor the forecast, weak high pressure will remain centered over \ncentral Gulf through Wed, with the western Atlantic ridge building\nwestward into the basin thereafter. This will maintain gentle to \nlocally moderate winds and slight seas this week. A surface trough\nwill generate locally fresh winds north and west of the Yucatan \nPeninsula in the early evenings through the period. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nThe pressure gradient associated to high pressure over the western\nAtlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America\ncontinues to allow for fresh to strong trades over the central \nCaribbean from the coast of Hispaniola to the coasts of NW \nVenezuela and northern Colombia. Seas up to 7 ft are with these \ntrades. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere\nfrom 11N to 18N, with gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas\nelsewhere, except slight north of 20N in the lee of Cuba. \nScattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from\n09N to 15N between 78.5W and 85W including over portions of\nnorthern Costa Rica and eastern Nicaragua.\nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between western Atlantic \nhigh pressure and low pressure in northern South America will \ncontinue to maintain fresh to strong trades and resultant rough \nseas over the south-central Caribbean this week. Elsewhere, mainly\nmoderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail, aside \nfrom light to gentle winds and slight seas in the NW part of the \nbasin. Winds will pulse at times through the week following \npassages of a series of relatively weak tropical waves that will \nquickly move west across the basin. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease refer to the Special Features section for more details on\nlow pressure, Invest AL95, with the potential for tropical \ncyclone formation, and on a tropical wave that has recently\nemerged off Africa.\nA couple of weak surface troughs are analyzed off the coast of the\nSE United States and Florida with isolated to widely scattered\nshowers and thunderstorms from roughly 27N to 31N between 73W and\n79W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted from the southern Bahamas\nand Turks and Caicos Islands to near the approach to the Windward\nPassage with low level troughing in place. Gentle to moderate\nwinds prevail elsewhere north of 20N and west of 61W. Slight to\nmoderate seas prevail north of 20N and west of 61W. \nAnother pair of weak surface troughs are in the NE portion of the\nbasin from near the Canary Islands westward as the remnants of an\nold frontal boundary. No significant convection is noted near \nthese features. Otherwise, broad high pressure ridging prevails. \nModerate to fresh trades dominate from north of the monsoon trough\nand ITCZ between Africa and 56W, with 4 to 7 ft seas. Winds are \nmainly moderate and seas moderate across any remainder waters.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, broad low pressure of 1016 mb \ncentered near 29N62W is producing scattered moderate convection \nand strong winds E of its center to about 52W. This low is \nexpected to move N and out of the area by tonight, and is showing \nsigns of tropical organization. Additional development of this \nsystem is possible, and a short- lived tropical depression or \nstorm could form during the next couple of days well E of Bermuda.\nRegardless of development, conditions will improve over area \nwaters by Tue as the system moves away. Elsewhere,moderate to \nfresh trades will prevail S of 23N, with slightly higher winds \npulsing at times as the northern extent of tropical waves most \nwestward across the far southern waters this week. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1204277885616848899", "issued": "2026-08-24T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1204277885616848899"}