{"msg": "600\nAXNT20 KNHC 241101\nTWDAT\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Mon Aug 24 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1045 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nCentral Subtropical Atlantic (Invest-AL95): Scattered to numerous\nmoderate to isolated strong convection located a few hundred \nnautical miles southeast of Bermuda are roughly from 26N to 31N \nbetween 55W and 60W. This convection is associated with an area of\nlow pressure analyzed as a weak 1016 mb low near 29N62W. A trough\nextends from the low to north of 31N62W and southwest from the \nlow to near 28N64W. Further development of the low is possible, \nand this system could become a short-lived tropical depression or \nstorm during the next couple of days while it moves northward and \nnorth-northeastward, well northeast of Bermuda. This system has a \nmedium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours \nand through the next 7 days.\nPlease refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at \nwebsite: https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more \ndetails.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 40W south of \n19N. It is moving westward at about 15 to 20 kt. Scattered \nmoderate convection is from 07N to 14N between 33W and 42W.\nA central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 58W south of \n23N. It is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection \nis to the northeast of the northern part of the wave from 21N to \n25N between 52W and 56W\nA central Caribbean tropical wave is near 70W south of 21N moving\nwestward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms\nare from 16N to 18N between 69W and 71W. Isolated showers are \nelsewhere near the wave.\nThe earlier tropical wave that was along 90W has moved well west \nof the Caribbean into the eastern Pacific. Please see the TWDEP\nfor details on this wave.\nLooking ahead, a tropical wave is expected to move off the west \ncoast of Africa later today, and an area of low pressure could \nform in association with the wave early this week. Environmental \nconditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for \ndevelopment, and a tropical depression could form by the middle to\nlatter portions of the week while the system moves generally \nwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. This \nsystem has a medium chance for tropical formation in 7 days.\n \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of \nAfrica near 15N16W and continues west-soutwhestward to 12N28W to \n09N36W to 06N43w and to 07N50W, where it transitions to the \nITCZ to 09N54W. Aside from the convection associated with the \ntropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection\nis within 120 nm north of the trough between 42W and 47W. Numerous\nmoderate isolated strong ahead of the next tropical wave is \npresent from 07N to 16N between 15W and 22W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nWeak surface ridging that is anchored by a 1017 mb high center \nlocated near 26N86W is generally allowing for anticyclonic light \nto gentle winds across the basin. Seas of slight state remain \nover the basin per overnight buoy observations and satellite \naltimeter data passes.\nScattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are confined to\nsouthwest of a line from near Veracruz to 19N91.5W. Isolated \nshowers and thunderstorms are over the NE Gulf north of 28N \nbetween 87W and 88W, and over some sections of the central Gulf.\nFor the forecast, the weak high pressure will remain centered \nover central Gulf through through Wed, with the western Atlantic \nridge building westward into the basin thereafter. This will \nmaintain gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas through \nthe week. A surface trough will generate locally fresh winds north\nand west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings through \nthe period. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nThe pressure gradient associated to high pressure over the western\nAtlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America\ncontinues to allow for fresh to strong trades primarily over the \nsouth- central Caribbean. Seas up to 6 ft are with these trades \nas indicated by overnight satellite altimeter data. Moderate to \nfresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere, except over the \nnorthwestern part of the Caribbean north of 20N, where light to \ngentle winds and slight to moderate seas are present. \nScattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring \nfrom 10N to 14N west of 81.5W to inland the coast of Nicaragua \nnear 85W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen \nsouth of 14N between 75W and 78W. Scattered showers and \nthunderstorms are over the Windward Passage and waters, reaching \nto near the eastern tip of Cuba.\nFor the forecast, the previously mentioned pressure gradient \nwill continue to maintain fresh to strong trades and resultant \nrough seas over the south-central Caribbean this week. Elsewhere,\nmainly moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail, \naside from light to gentle winds and slight seas in the northwest\npart of the basin. Winds will pulse at times through the week \nfollowing passages of a series of relatively weak tropical waves \nthat will quickly move west across the basin. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease refer to the Special Features section for more details on\nlow pressure, Invest AL95, with the potential for tropical \ncyclone formation.\nA trough extends from near 31N78W southwestward to near Palm \nBeach, Florida. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are \nalong the trough north of about 28N while isolated showers and \nthunderstorms are near the trough south of 28N. A 1019 mb high \ncenter located near 30N68W basically controls the general wind \nflow pattern over the western half of the basin. To the east, a \nlarge area of scattered moderate convection is noted from 22N to \n26N between 52W and 57W, and also from 25N to 31N between 48W and\n51W. \nModerate to fresh trades are found from 10N to 20N north of the \nmonsoon trough between the Cabo Verde Islands and 42W, and in a \nbelt from there to near the low pressure area, Invest-AL95. Winds\nare moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters. Seas \nare of slight state north of about 20N and west of 60W, and of \nmoderate state over the remainder of the basin.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, regarding the aforementioned low, \n(Invest- AL95), further development of the low is possible, and \nthis system could become a short-lived tropical depression or \nstorm during the next couple of days while it moves northward and \nnorth-northeastward, well northeast of Bermuda. The fresh to \nstrong southerly winds will slowly diminish through early early \nTue. Elsewhere, high pressure will maintain mainly gentle winds N \nof 23N through the period, with moderate to fresh trades to the \nsouth, with slightly higher winds pulsing at times as the northern\nextent of tropical waves most westward across the far southern \nwaters this week. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1204220499497091074", "issued": "2026-08-24T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1204220499497091074"}