{"msg": "668\nAXPZ20 KNHC 240946\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Mon Aug 24 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0940 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Iselle is centered near 17.8N 116.2W at 24/0900\nUTC, moving northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with\ngusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are 20 ft. Numerous moderate to strong\nconvection is noted from 14N to 20N between 112W and 120W. \nIselle is moving toward the northwest near 12 kt and this motion\nis expected to continue through tonight, followed by a gradual \nturn toward the west-northwest on Tuesday. Some strengthening is\nexpected over the next day or so, and Iselle could become a \nshort-lived hurricane by late tonight. Gradual weakening is then \nforecast starting on Tuesday. Swells generated by Iselle will \naffect the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula beginning \ntoday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and\nrip current conditions. Please consult products from your local \nweather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued\nby the National Hurricane Center at website -\nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest\nIselle NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at\nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nCentral East Pacific (EP91): A broad area of low pressure \nlocated well to the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja \nCalifornia Peninsula is producing some disorganized showers and \nthunderstorms. Environmental conditions could still support the \ndevelopment of a short-lived tropical depression during the next \nday or so while the system moves generally northward, before it \nbecomes absorbed by Tropical Storm Iselle. This system has a \nmedium chance for tropical cyclone formation through 48 hrs, and \nalso through 7 days.\nPlease refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at \nwebsite: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more \ndetails on these systems.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is along 92W from 03N to 18N, moving westward at\n15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted \nfrom 02N to 08N between 90W and 98W.\nA tropical wave is along 103W from 02N to 18N, moving westward \nat 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is \nobserved from 04N to 19N between 94W and 107W.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 09N85W to 06N100W to\n10N109W, then continues SW of Iselle from 11N121W to beyond \n07N140W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical \nwaves, Invest area EP91 and T.S. Iselle described above, \nscattered moderate isolated strong convection can be found from \nfrom 02N to 12N W of 130W. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information\nabout T.S. Iselle and Invest area EP91. \nTropical Storm Iselle is near 17.8N 116.2W at 2 AM PDT, and is\nmoving northwest at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt\nwith gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 996 mb. \nIselle has reduced the pressure gradient over the region and\nwinds have diminished to light to gentle N of Cabo San Lazaro\nwhere seas now are slight to moderate in SE swell. Tropical storm\nwinds and very rough seas associated with Iselle are affecting \nthe outer offshore waters between Cabo San Lazaro and Cabo San\nLucas. Moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas are ongoing\nacross the Jalisco offshore waters while NW winds of the same\nmagnitude are adjacent to the Michoacan and Guerrero, Mexico\ncoasts. Seas over the SW offshores are moderate in SE swell.\nOtherwise, fresh to strong N gap winds persist across the Gulf \nof Tehuantepec and downwind to about 14.5N along with seas to 8\nft. \nFor the forecast, Iselle will move to 19.0N 117.4W this \nafternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 20.1N 118.9W Tue \nmorning, weaken to a tropical storm near 20.9N 120.7W Tue \nafternoon, 21.5N 122.5W Wed morning, 21.9N 124.4W Wed afternoon, \nand 22.4N 126.3W Thu morning. Iselle will change little in \nintensity as it moves near 23.1N 130.1W early Fri. Moderate NW\nwinds will resume along the Baja California offshore waters Tue\nnight as Iselle moves NW away from the region. However, rough\nseas associated with Iselle are forecast to subside Wed. Fresh \nnortherly gap winds will continue to pulse to strong speeds \nacross Tehuantepec region mainly during the overnight and early \nmorning hours through the upcoming weekend, with seas occasionally\nbuilding to 8 ft.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh to strong NE to E gap winds continue across the Papagayo \nregion and downwind to near 90W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. \nModerate or weaker winds are found elsewhere, with moderate seas \nin SE swell. \nFor the forecast, high pressure will persist over the eastern \nGulf of America and northwestern Caribbean leading to fresh NE to\nE gap winds pulsing to strong speeds over the Papagayo region \neach evening and night through Fri night. Moderate to fresh winds\nextending well downwind of Papagayo will impact the outer waters\noffshore of El Salvador and Guatemala through the end of the \nweek. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to locally moderate \nwinds will persist through Fri night. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information about\nT.S. Iselle and Invest area EP91. \nHigh pressure of 1022 mb located N of the area extends a ridge \nsoutheastward into the northern forecast waters. Under the \ninfluence of this system, and outside of Iselle, moderate to \nlocally fresh N to NE winds are observed from 10N to 25N and W \nof 120W. Fresh NE to E winds are seen from 10N to 15N W of 130W.\nModerate or weaker winds and moderate seas in mixed swell \nprevail elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, an area of low pressure is expected to develop\nwell south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula \nduring the middle part of the week. Gradual development is \nexpected thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form \nlater this week or over the weekend while the system moves \ngenerally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt.\nLooking ahead, another area of low pressure could form well \noffshore of Central America late this week. Environmental \nconditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this \nsystem over the weekend while it moves westward to west-\nnorthwestward at 10 to 15 mph well offshore of southern Mexico. \nThis system has a low chance for tropical cyclone formation \nthrough 7 days.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1204205712912220162", "issued": "2026-08-24T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1204205712912220162"}