{"msg": "011\nAXNT20 KNHC 240602\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Mon Aug 24 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0400 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nCentral Subtropical Atlantic (AL95): Showers and thunderstorms \nare slowly getting better organized in association with a low \npressure area centered about 400 miles southeast of Bermuda near\n29N62W, 1016 mb. Further development of the low is possible, and \nthis system could become a short-lived tropical depression or \nstorm during the next couple of days while it moves northward and \nnorth- northeastward, well northeast of Bermuda. This system has \na medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours\nand 7 days.\nPlease refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at \nwebsite: https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more \ndetails.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave has its axis along 36W south of 19N, moving \nquickly westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is \nnoted from 10N to 13N between 35W and 41W.\nA tropical wave has its axis along 56W south of 20N, moving \nwestward at around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is \nN of 18N between 51W-55W. \nA tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean, with axis\nalong 68W, moving quickly westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers\nare noted in the wave environment and N of 17N.\nA tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis along \n90W, moving westward at around 15-20 kt. The wave appears to \nsupport convective activity over the Yucatan peninsula. \nLooking ahead, a tropical wave is expected to move off the west \ncoast of Africa on Monday, and an area of low pressure could form \nin association with the wave early this week. Environmental \nconditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for \ndevelopment, and a tropical depression could form by the middle to\nlatter portions of the week while the system moves generally \nwestward at 15 to 20 kt across the eastern and central tropical \nAtlantic. This system has a medium chance for tropical formation\nin 7 days.\n \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of \nAfrica near 12N16W and continues westward to 07N50W. The ITCZ \nextends from 07N50W to 07N53W. Aside from the convection \nassociated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection \nis noted along the monsoon trough E of 21W, and between 35W and \n48W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nWeak surface ridging, anchored by a 1016 mb high center located \nnear 27N93W, is generally allowing for anticyclonic light to \ngentle winds across the basin. Slight seas are present throughout \nthe Gulf waters per buoy observations and altimeter data. \nScattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms remain are active \nover the Yucatan Peninsula, and across the Mexican coast between \nVeracruz and Tampico where a surface trough is analyzed. Isolated \nto scattered showers and thunderstorms are also present over the \nNE Gulf, and over most of Florida. \nFor the forecast, weak high pressure will remain centered over \ncentral Gulf through midweek, with the western Atlantic ridge \nbuilding westward into the basin thereafter. This will maintain \ngentle to moderate winds and slight seas through the week. A \nsurface trough will generate locally fresh winds north and west of\nthe Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings through the period. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nTwo tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean Sea. Please,\nsee the Tropical Wave section above for more details.\nThe pressure gradient associated to high pressure over the western\nAtlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America\nis sustaining fresh to strong trades primarily over the south- \ncentral Caribbean. Seas up o 6 ft are with these trades. Moderate\nto fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere, except over the \nnorthwestern part of the Caribbean north of 20N, where light to \ngentle winds and slight to moderate seas are present. \nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to maintain\nfresh to strong trades and resultant rough seas over the south- \ncentral Caribbean this week. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh \ntrades and moderate seas will prevail, aside from light to gentle \nwinds and slight seas in the NW basin. Winds will pulse at times \nthrough the week following passages of a series of relatively weak\ntropical waves that will quickly move west across the basin. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease refer to the Special Features section for more details on low \npressure, Invest AL95, with the potential for tropical cyclone formation.\nA trough is analyzed E of Florida and runs from 31N76W to 25N80W.\nScattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted N of \n25N W of 74W in association with this trough. A 1019 mb high \npressure situated near 29N68W dominates the remainder of the SW N\nAtlantic, including the Bahamas and W of 60W. A stationary front \ncrosses between the Madeira and the Canary Islands. A few showers \nare along the frontal boundary. Rough seas are found north of the \nfront. A ridge dominates much of the area between 30W and 60W, \nwith a 1028 high pressure located north of area near 35N47W. \nModerate to fresh trades are found from 10N to 20N north of the \nmonsoon trough between the Cabo Verde Islands and 42W, and in a \nbelt from there to near the low pressure area, AL95. Winds are \nmoderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters. Seas are \nslight north of 20N and west of 60W, and moderate across the \nremainder of the waters.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned low (AL95) will\ncontinue developing as it moves northward and north- \nnortheastward well to the northeast of Bermuda. Increasing winds \nand seas are possible tonight over the far NE waters, with \nconditions then improving Mon. Elsewhere, high pressure will \nmaintain mainly gentle winds N of 23N through the period, with \nmoderate to fresh trades to the south, with slightly higher winds \npulsing at times as the northern extent of tropical waves most \nwestward across the far southern waters this week. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1204161673394847746", "issued": "2026-08-24T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1204161673394847746"}