{"msg": "200\nAXPZ20 KNHC 240408\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Mon Aug 24 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0350 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Iselle is centered near 17.1N 115.3W at 24/0300\nUTC, moving northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with\ngusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are 17 ft. Numerous moderate to strong\nconvection is noted from 11N to 20N between 112W and 120W. \nIselle is moving toward the northwest near 12 kt and this motion\nis expected to continue through Monday, followed by a gradual \nturn toward the west-northwest on Tuesday. Some strengthening is\nforecast during the next day or two, and Iselle could become a \nstrong tropical storm Monday night or early Tuesday. Swells \ngenerated by Iselle will affect the west coast of the Baja \nCalifornia Peninsula beginning Monday. These swells are likely to\ncause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please \nconsult products from your local weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued\nby the National Hurricane Center at website -\nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest\nIselle NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at\nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nCentral East Pacific (EP91): Disorganized showers and \nthunderstorms are persisting with a broad area of low pressure \nlocated well to the south-southwest of the southern tip of the \nBaja California Peninsula. Environmental conditions could support\nthe development of a short-lived tropical depression during the \nnext day or so before it becomes absorbed by Tropical Storm \nIselle.This system has a medium chance for tropical cyclone \nformation through 48 hrs, and also through 7 days.\nPlease refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at \nwebsite: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more \ndetails on these systems.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is along 89W from 02N to 20N moving westward at \n15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted \nfrom 03N to 16N E of 98W.\nA tropical wave is along 102W N of 03N into Mexico, moving \nwestward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong \nconvection is observed from 08N to 19N between 93W and 107W.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 08N84W to 12N110W then continues\nSW of Iselle from 12N120W to 08N130W to beyond 07N140W. Aside \nfrom the convection related to the tropical waves, Invest area \nEP91 and T.S. Iselle described above, scattered moderate to \nisolated strong convection can be found from from 01N to 12N W \nof 125W. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information\nabout T.S. Iselle and Invest area EP91. \nTropical Storm Iselle is near 17.1N 115.3W at 8 PM PDT, and is \nmoving northwest at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with\ngusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 999 mb. A \nridge continues to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja \nCalifornia Norte supporting gentle to moderate NW winds and \nmoderate seas. Strong winds and rough seas associated with the \nouter periphery of T.S. Iselle are affecting the Revillagigedo \nIslands, particularly Clarion Island. Moderate to fresh SE to S \nwinds are in the Gulf of California N of 25N with slight seas. \nFresh to strong N gap winds persist across the Gulf of \nTehuantepec and downwind to about 14.5N. Seas are 6 to 8 ft with\nthese winds.\nFor the forecast, Iselle will move to 18.1N 116.4W Mon morning, \n19.4N 117.8W Mon evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 20.4N \n119.6W Tue morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 21.0N 121.4W \nTue evening, 21.5N 123.1W Wed morning, and 21.9N 125.1W Wed \nevening. Iselle will change little in intensity as it moves near \n22.8N 128.8W late Thu. A ridge will persist between Baja \nCalifornia and Iselle through about midweek supporting gentle to \nmoderate NW to N winds north of Cabo San Lazaro. Stronger winds \nand higher seas are expected across the forecast zone between \nCabo San Lazaro and Cabo San Lucas, including the Revillagigedo \nIslands, due to the proximity of Iselle. The forecast calls for \nstorm conditions in the Revillagigedo Islands tonight, and storm \nconditions possible in the Revillagigedo Islands and the forecast\nzone between Cabo San Lazaro and Cabo San Lucas on Mon. Fresh \nnortherly gap winds will continue to pulse to strong speeds \nacross Tehuantepec region mainly during the overnight and early \nmorning hours through the next several days, with seas \noccasionally building to 8 ft. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh to strong NE to E gap winds continue across the Papagayo \nregion and downwind to near 90W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. \nModerate or weaker winds are found elsewhere, with moderate seas \nin SW swell. \nFor the forecast, high pressure will persist over the eastern \nGulf of America and northwestern Caribbean leading to fresh NE to\nE gap winds pulsing to strong speeds over the Papagayo region \neach evening and night through Fri night. Moderate to fresh winds\nextending well downwind of Papagayo will impact the outer waters\noffshore of El Salvador and Guatemala through the end of the \nweek. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to locally moderate \nwinds will persist through Fri night. Additional pulses of long \nperiod SW swell will continue to propagate across the area with \nmoderate to locally rough seas. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information about\nT.S. Iselle and Invest area EP91. \nHigh pressure of 1022 mb located N of the area extends a ridge \nsoutheastward into the northern forecast waters to offshore of \nBaja California Norte. Under the influence of this system, and \noutside of Iselle, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are \nobserved N of 15N and W of 120W. Fresh NE to E winds are seen \nfrom 10N to 15N W of 125W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate \nseas in mixed swell prevail elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, an area of low pressure is expected to develop\nwell south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula \ntoward the middle portion of the week. Some slow development is \nexpected thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form \nlater this week or over the weekend while the system moves \ngenerally west-northwestward.\nLooking ahead, another area of low pressure could form well \noffshore of Central America late this week. Environmental \nconditions appear favorable for gradual development over the \nweekend as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 \nto 15 mph well offshore of southern Mexico. This system has a low\nchance for tropical cyclone formation through 7 days.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1204139159643652098", "issued": "2026-08-24T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1204139159643652098"}