{"id": "1204122865483186178", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-24T03:00:00Z", "msg": "365\nWTPZ44 KNHC 240245\nTCDEP4\n \nTropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092026\n800 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026\n \nThe most recent ASCAT and OSCAT passes have shown that the strongest \nwinds with Iselle are around 40 to 45 kt. UW-CIMSS objective \nestimates are in the 35-55 kt range, and the most recent TAFB \nsubjective Dvorak estimate is T3.0/45 kt. With all of that data in \nconsideration, the intensity has been held at 45 kt for this \nadvisory. However, recent observations at Isla Clarion have recorded \nsustained winds around 30 to 35 kt, gusting up to around 40 kt and \na surface pressure of 1002 mb. Thus in light of that data, the \ncentral pressure for Iselle has been lowered to 999 mb.\n \nThe initial motion estimate is northwestward, or 310 degrees at 8 \nkt.  A continued northwestward motion is expected through Monday \nwhile Iselle is steered by ridging over the southwestern United \nStates and northwestern Mexico. As the ridge builds in some more to \nthe north of the cyclone, a gradual turn toward the west-northwest \nis expected on Tuesday and Wednesday.  The current NHC track is very \nsimilar to the previous track, only minor adjustments in speed and \nlocation have been made. The track remains very close to the lastest \nHFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) model and the Google DeepMind \n(GDMI). There is a good amount of spread in the track forecast \ntowards the later portion of the forecast, thus the confidence is \nslightly below average.\n \nIselle will be traveling over warm water and within a moist \nenvironment with weak to moderate vertical wind shear for the next \nday or so, but westerly vertical wind shear should increase to the \n15-20 kt range by Tuesday or sooner.  Strengthening is expected for \nthe next 36 h. The current NHC intensity forecast is on the higher \nend of the guidance, thus it is possible that Iselle might not quite \nmake it to hurricane status. After this period, the cyclone will \nmove into a more hostile environment with stronger shear, colder \nsea-surface temperatures, and some slightly drier air. As such, the \nstorm should progressively get weaker beyond a couple of days. \n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  24/0300Z 17.1N 115.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  24/1200Z 18.1N 116.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  25/0000Z 19.4N 117.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  25/1200Z 20.4N 119.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  26/0000Z 21.0N 121.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 60H  26/1200Z 21.5N 123.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  27/0000Z 21.9N 125.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  28/0000Z 22.8N 128.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n120H  29/0000Z 23.6N 132.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n \n"}