{"id": "1204120597694152706", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-24T03:00:00Z", "msg": "088\nWTPA43 PHFO 240233\nTCDCP3\n \nTropical Depression Moke Discussion Number  15\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP022026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 PM HST Sun Aug 23 2026\n\nConvection associated with Moke has decreased significantly during\nthe past several hours. The cyclone is now comprised of an exposed\nswirl of low- to mid-level clouds, with the remaining convection\nnow located just south of the Island of Hawaii well to the\nnortheast of the center. Just-received OSCAT data shows maximum\nwinds of 25 to maybe 30 kt, and based on this Moke is being\ndowngraded to a tropical depression.\n \nA combination of southwesterly shear and dry air entrainment\nshould continue to inhibit Moke's ability to develop convection.\nThe dynamical models forecast the cyclone to keep weakening, with\nthe system likely to degenerate to a remnant low by 48 h at the\nlatest and to a trough by 72 h.  The intensity forecast follows\nthis, and it is possible that Moke will dissipate faster than\ncurrently forecast if significant convection does not re-develop.\n \nThe initial motion is 275/12 kt.  A strong low- to mid-level\nridge should steer the cyclone generally westward for the remainder\nof its life, keeping Moke well south of the main Hawaiian Islands.\nThe guidance again nudged southward, and the new forecast track is a\nlittle south of the previous track.  Despite this nudge and the\nweakening of the cyclone, Moke is still expected to pass close\nenough to the Hawaiian Islands to produce a period of gusty winds\nand heavy rainfall across portions of the islands during the next\nday or two.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Rain bands associated with Tropical Depression Moke will continue \nover the Big Island while spreading westward across the remainder of \nthe Hawaiian Islands through Monday. This rainfall may produce \nlife-threatening flooding and mudslides for the windward and \nsoutheast Big Island, especially in steep terrain and over areas \nthat were affected recently by Lala.\n \n2. Although the strongest winds associated with Moke are expected to\npass south of the Hawaiian Islands, strong gusty winds are likely,\nparticularly in areas within and downslope of higher terrain.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  24/0300Z 15.3N 157.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  24/1200Z 15.4N 159.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  25/0000Z 15.8N 161.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  25/1200Z 16.3N 164.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  26/0000Z 16.8N 167.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  26/1200Z 17.3N 169.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}