{"id": "1204120302700429314", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-24T03:00:00Z", "msg": "071\nWTPA42 PHFO 240232\nTCDCP2\n \nTropical Storm Lala Discussion Number  47\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 PM HST Sun Aug 23 2026\n\nLala remains a well organized tropical storm despite moving over \ncool waters. The system is maintaining a partial eyewall that wraps \na little more than halfway around the center, along with \nnumerous fragmented outer rainbands. There has been little change in \nthe latest satellite intensity estimates, and a blend of the latest \nobjective and subjective estimates supports holding the initial \nintensity steady at 55 kt. An ASCAT-C pass from around 21Z was \nhelpful in adjusting the 34- and 50-kt wind radii.\n\nThe storm is moving slowly northwestward at about 6 kt. An even \nslower northwestward motion is expected during the next few days as \nLala is forecast to remain located just southwest of a strong \nsubtropical ridge, not far from the ridge axis where the steering \ncurrents are weak. This motion should cause Lala to cross the \nInternational Date Line around the middle of the week. Although the \nmodels show the same general theme, there is a fair amount of \ncross-track spread beyond 72 hours. The NHC track forecast is \nsimilar to the previous one and lies closer to the left side of the \nguidance envelope, near the Google DeepMind, HCCA, and TVCA aids.\n\nLala is expected to weaken over the next several days as it moves \nover progressively cooler waters, but the weakening trend will \nlikely be slow since it is expected to remain in generally low wind \nshear conditions. The GFS and ECMWF models show the storm losing \norganized deep convection around the time it nears the International \nDate Line in a few days. Based on that guidance, the transition to a \npost-tropical cyclone has been moved up to day 4.  Otherwise, this \nintensity forecast is very similar to the previous one and near the \nmiddle of the guidance envelope.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  24/0300Z 33.1N 174.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  24/1200Z 33.5N 175.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  25/0000Z 34.3N 175.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  25/1200Z 34.8N 176.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  26/0000Z 35.4N 177.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 60H  26/1200Z 36.0N 178.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  27/0000Z 36.6N 179.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  28/0000Z 38.2N 179.5E   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n120H  29/0000Z 39.8N 177.9E   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n \n"}