{"msg": "502\nAXNT20 KNHC 232301\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Mon Aug 24 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2300 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nCentral Subtropical Atlantic (AL95): Satellite images indicate that \nshowers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization\nassociated with an area of low pressure located about 400 miles \nsoutheast of Bermuda. Further development of the low is possible,\nand this system could become a short-lived tropical depression \nor storm during the next couple of days while it moves northward \nand north-northeastward, well northeast of Bermuda. This system \nhas a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 \nhours and 7 days. A band-like of moderate to isolated strong\nconvection is noted E of the low center from 20N to 30N between\n51W and 56W.\nPlease refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at \nwebsite: https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more \ndetails.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave has its axis along 35W south of 19N, moving quickly\nwestward at 20 to 25 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted \nfrom 04N to 13N between 30W and 40W.\nA tropical wave has its axis along 54W south of 20N, moving westward\nat around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the northern\nportion of the wave axis. Scatterometer data indicate the wind shift\nassociated with the wave.\nA tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Its axis\nis along 67W south of 20N extending from western Puerto Rico to \nnorth-central Venezuela, moving quickly westward at 20 to 25 kt.\nthe wave is enhancing some convective activity over parts of\nPuerto Rico and northern Venezuela. \nAnother tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis\nalong 87W, moving westward at around 10 kt. The wave appears to \nsupport some convective activity over parts of Nicaragua, \nHonduras and Costa Rica.\nLooking ahead, a tropical wave is expected to move off the west \ncoast of Africa on Monday, and an area of low pressure could form\nin association with the wave early this week. Environmental \nconditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for development,\nand a tropical depression could form by the middle to latter \nportions of the week while the system moves generally westward at\n15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. In\nfact, a cluster of moderate to strong convection, possibly associated\nwith the next tropical wave, is about to emerge off the west coast\nof Africa.\n \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of \nAfrica near 12N16W and continues westward to 12N30W, then SW to\n07N40W. The ITCZ extends from 07N40W to near Trinidad and Tobago.\nAside from the convection associated with the tropical waves,\nscattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 08N between\n40W and 50W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nRelatively weak high pressure, anchored by a 1018 mb high center \nlocated near 26N92W, is generally allowing for anticyclonic \nlight to gentle winds across the basin. Slight seas are present \nthroughout the Gulf waters per buoy observations and altimeter \ndata. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms remain are \nactive over the Yucatan Peninsula, and across the Mexican coast \nbetween Veracruz and Tampico where a surface trough is analyzed. \nIsolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are also present \nover the NE Gulf, and over most of Florida. \nFor the forecast, weak high pressure will remain centered over central \nGulf through midweek, with the western Atlantic ridge building \nwestward into the basin thereafter. This will maintain gentle to \nlocally moderate winds and slight seas through the week. A surface\ntrough will generate locally fresh winds north and west of the \nYucatan Peninsula in the early evenings through the period. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nTwo tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean Sea. Please,\nsee the Tropical Wave section above for more details.\nThe pressure gradient associated to high pressure over the western\nAtlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America\nis sustaining fresh to locally strong trades primarily over the \nsouth-central Caribbean. Seas up to around 8 ft are with these \ntrades. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere,\nexcept over the northwestern part of the Caribbean north of 20N, \nwhere light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are \npresent. Convection has flared-up over the Greater Antilles due\nto daytime heating, local sea breezes and mountain upslope\nlifting. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring over\nnorthern Colombia.\nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between western Atlantic high\npressure and low pressure in northern South America will continue \nto maintain fresh to strong trades and resultant rough seas over \nthe south- central Caribbean this week. Elsewhere, mainly moderate\nto fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail, aside from light\nto gentle winds and slight seas in the NW basin. Winds will pulse\nat times through the week following passages of a series of relatively\nweak tropical waves that will quickly move west across the basin.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease refer to the Special Features section for more details on low \npressure, Invest AL95, with the potential for tropical cyclone formation.\nA trough is analyzed E of Florida and runs from 31N76W to 25N80W.\nScattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted N of \n25N W of 74W in association with this trough. A 1019 mb high \npressure situated near 28N70W dominates the remainder of the SW N\nAtlantic, including the Bahamas and W of 60W. A stationary front\ncrosses between the Madeira and the Canary Islands. A few \nshowers are along the frontal boundary. Rough seas are found \nnorth of the front. A ridge dominates much of the area between \n30W and 60W, with a 1028 high pressure located north of area near\n35N44W. Moderate to fresh trades are found from 10N to 20N north\nof the monsoon trough between the Cabo Verde Islands and 42W, \nand in a belt from there to near the low pressure area, AL95. \nWinds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters. \nSeas are slight north of 20N and west of 60W, and moderate across\nthe remainder of the waters.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned low (AL95) is \nforecast to move northward and out of the forecast region tonight\ninto Mon. Increasing winds and seas are possible tonight over \nthe far NE waters, with conditions then improving Mon. Elsewhere,\nhigh pressure will maintain mainly gentle winds N of 23N through\nthe period, with moderate to fresh trades to the south, with \nslightly higher winds pulsing at times as the northern extent of \ntropical waves most westward across the far southern waters this \nweek. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1204078846675288066", "issued": "2026-08-23T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1204078846675288066"}