{"msg": "507\nAXPZ20 KNHC 232150\nTWDEP\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Sun Aug 23 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2100 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Iselle is centered near 16.9N 115.1W at 23/2100\nUTC, moving northwest at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure\nis 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to \n55 kt. Peak seas are 15 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection\nis noted within 180 nm SW semicircle. Iselle is moving toward \nthe northwest, and this motion is expected to continue through \nMonday, followed by a gradual turn toward the west-northwest on \nTuesday. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or \ntwo, and Iselle could become a hurricane Monday night or early \nTuesday. Swells generated by Iselle will affect the west coast of the\nBaja California Peninsula beginning Monday. These swells are \nlikely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued\nby the National Hurricane Center at website -\nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest\nIselle NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at\nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nCentral East Pacific (EP91): Disorganized showers and thunderstorms \nare persisting with a broad area of low pressure located well to\nthe south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California \nPeninsula. Environmental conditions could support the development\nof a short-lived tropical depression during the next couple of \ndays before it becomes absorbed by Tropical Storm Iselle. This \nsystem has a medium chance for tropical cyclone formation through\n48 hrs, and also through 7 days.\nPlease refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at \nwebsite: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more \ndetails on these systems.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is along 87W from 04N to 20N moving westward at \n15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted\nfrom 03N to 10N between 87W and 92W. The wave appears to enhance\nsome convective activity over parts of Nicaragua, Honduras and\nCosta Rica.\nA tropical wave is along 100W N of 04N into Mexico, moving \nwestward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong \nconvection is observed from 10N to 18N between 92W and 106W.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N95W to 11N110W then\ncontinues SW of Iselle from 12N119W to 08N130W to beyond 07N140W.\nAside from the convection related to the tropical waves, Invest \narea EP91 and T.S. Iselle described above, scattered moderate to \nisolated strong convection can be found from from 03N to 12N W \nof 126W. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information\nabout T.S. Iselle and Invest area EP91. \nA ridge continues to dominate the offshore forecast waters of \nBaja California Norte supporting gentle to moderate NW winds and\nmoderate seas. Strong winds and rough seas associated with the \nouter periphery of T.S. Iselle are reaching the Revillagigedo \nIslands, particularly Clarion Island. Recent scatterometer data \nprovide observations of fresh to strong SE to S winds in the \nGulf of California N of 27N. Moderate seas are noted with these \nwinds. Fresh to strong N gap winds persist across the Gulf of \nTehuantepec and downwind to about 14.5N based on recent\nscatterometer data. Seas are 6 to 8 ft with these winds.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Iselle will move to 18.2N 116.3W \nMon morning, 19.6N 117.8W Mon afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane\nnear 20.8N 119.4W Tue morning, 21.4N 121.1W Tue afternoon, weaken\nto a tropical storm near 21.9N 122.8W Wed morning, and 22.4N \n124.6W Wed afternoon. Iselle will change little in intensity as \nit moves to near 23.3N 128.4W Thu afternoon. A ridge will persist\nbetween Baja California and Iselle through about midweek supporting\ngentle to moderate NW to N winds north of Cabo San Lazaro. Stronger\nwinds and higher seas are expected across the forecast zone between\nCabo San Lazaro and Cabo San Lucas, including the Revillagigedo \nIslands, due to the proximity of Iselle. The forecast calls for \nstorm conditions in the Revillagigedo Islands tonight, and storm \nconditions possible in the Revillagigedo Islands and the \nforecast zone between Cabo San Lazaro and Cabo San Lucas on Mon. \nThe fresh to locally strong winds over the north and central \nparts of the Gulf of California will diminish by tonight. Fresh \nnortherly gap winds will continue to pulse to strong speeds \nacross Tehuantepec region mainly during the overnight and early \nmorning hours through the next several days, with seas \noccasionally building to 8 ft.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh to strong NE to E gap winds continue across the Papagayo \nregion and downwind to near 90W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. \nModerate or weaker winds are found elsewhere, with moderate seas \nin SW swell. \nFor the forecast, high pressure will persist over the eastern Gulf\nof America and northwestern Caribbean leading to fresh NE to E \ngap winds pulsing to strong speeds over the Papagayo region each \nevening and night through Wed night. Moderate to fresh winds \nextending well downwind of Papagayo will impact the outer waters \noffshore of El Salvador and Guatemala through the middle of the \nweek. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to locally moderate \nwinds will persist through Wed night. Additional pulses of long\nperiod SW swell will continue to propagate across the area with \nmoderate to locally rough seas.  \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information about\nT.S. Iselle and Invest area EP91. \nHigh pressure of 1024 mb located near 32N143W extends a ridge \nsoutheastward into the northern forecast waters to offshore of \nBaja California Norte. Under the influence of this system, and\noutside of Iselle, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are\nobserved based on scatterometer data N of 15N and W of 120W. \nFresh NE to E winds are seen from 10N to 15N W of 125W. Moderate\nor weaker winds and moderate seas in mixed swell prevail \nelsewhere.\nFor the forecast, an area of low pressure is expected to develop\nwell south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula \nduring the middle portion of this week. Some slow development is \nexpected thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form \nlater this week or over the weekend while the system moves \ngenerally west-northwestward. This system has a medium chance for\ntropical cyclone formation through 7 days.\nLooking ahead, another area of low pressure could form well offshore\nof Central America and southern Mexico late this week. Environmental\nconditions appear favorable for gradual development over the weekend\nas the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph\nwell offshore of southern Mexico. This system has a low chance for\ntropical cyclone formation through 7 days.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1204064787585040386", "issued": "2026-08-23T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1204064787585040386"}