{"id": "1204049803906023426", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-23T21:00:00Z", "msg": "383\nWTPA42 PHFO 232033\nTCDCP2\n \nTropical Storm Lala Discussion Number  46\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 AM HST Sun Aug 23 2026\n\nVisible and infrared satellite imagery shows Tropical Storm Lala may \nbe a bit better organized, with deep convection over the center and \na larger outer band now wrapping around the eastern and northern \nsemicircles. The change in appearance has not yet influenced the \nobjective and subjective satellite-based intensity estimates, which \nsupport maintaining an initial intensity of 55 kt for this \nadvisory. I again note that this intensity could be generous, but \nis consistent with a steady decay of the cyclone over cooler waters \nand the recent improved appearance on satellite imagery.\n\nLala's current forward motion is analyzed to be 305/4 kt. The \nmid-level ridge positioned just south and east of the central \nAleutian Islands is expected to remain the primary steering feature \nthrough this week. As a result, the tropical storm is forecast to \ncontinue slowly on a northwestward heading until degenerating into a \nremnant low by 120 h. The track forecast is similar to the previous \nadvisory and closely follows the corrected multi-model consensus \n(HCCA), which lies on the western side of the guidance envelope.\n \nThe intensity forecast is largely unchanged, lies within the middle \nof the guidance envelope near HCCA, and continues to show a slow and \nsteady decay as the tropical cyclone moves across gradually cooler \nwaters. Some increase in vertical wind shear beginning around 72 h \nshould allow mid-level dry air to better penetrate the cyclone. Lala \nis forecast to become a remnant low by 120 h, in agreement with the \nlatest GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery, though this could \nhappen sooner.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  23/2100Z 32.5N 174.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  24/0600Z 33.0N 174.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  24/1800Z 33.6N 175.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  25/0600Z 34.3N 176.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  25/1800Z 34.8N 177.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 60H  26/0600Z 35.4N 177.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  26/1800Z 36.1N 178.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  27/1800Z 37.5N 179.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n120H  28/1800Z 39.6N 178.1E   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n \n"}