{"id": "1204049621356707842", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-23T21:00:00Z", "msg": "357\nWTPA43 PHFO 232032\nTCDCP3\n \nTropical Storm Moke Discussion Number  14\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP022026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 AM HST Sun Aug 23 2026\n \nA large area of thunderstorm activity continues in the northern\nsemicircle of Moke, though the southern side of the system remains\nmostly exposed. Visible satellite imagery indicates the center is on\nthe southwestern edge of the deep convection, reflective of the\nsoutherly shear.  While Dvorak intensity estimates have recently\nincreased, recent scatterometer data is actually lower than \nearlier, showing only a small area of winds above 30 kt.  The \ninitial intensity is set to 35 kt assuming some undersampling \nknowing the bias of that instrument. \n \nMoke should move through a tough environment during the next several\ndays, with lots of mid-level dry air and moderate shear in its path.\nThese conditions should suppress the influences of the warm\nsea-surface temperatures, and Moke will likely only produce\ntemporary bursts of deep convection early this week.  Shear is \nstill forecast to increase in a day or two, and the storm is \nexpected to weaken into a tropical depression and/or remnant low \naround that time.  The model trend of an earlier dissipation \ncontinues, so the time of tropical depression and remnant low \nstatus has been moved up 12-24 h, with a faster weakening than the \nlast advisory.\n \nMoke is moving westward at about 13 kt. A strong low- to mid-level\nridge should steer the storm westward to west-northwestward for the\nnext several days, keeping Moke well south of the main Hawaiian\nIslands.  Similar to the last forecast, the model guidance has\nshifted a bit to the south, and the NHC track is moved in that\ndirection. Moke is still expected to pass close enough to the \nHawaiian Islands to produce a period of gusty winds and heavy \nrainfall across portions of the islands during the next day or two.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Moke is gradually\nincreasing over the Big Island of Hawaii today. Rain will then\nspread westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands through\nMonday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and\nmudslides for the windward and southeast Big Island, especially in\nsteep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala.\n \n2. Although the strongest winds associated with Moke are expected to\npass south of the Hawaiian Islands, strong gusty winds are likely,\nparticularly in areas within and downslope of higher terrain.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  23/2100Z 15.2N 156.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  24/0600Z 15.4N 158.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  24/1800Z 15.7N 160.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  25/0600Z 16.2N 163.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  25/1800Z 16.8N 166.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  26/0600Z 17.4N 168.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}