{"msg": "323\nAXNT20 KNHC 231806 AAA\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion...Updated\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Sun Aug 23 2026\nUpdated for Special Features of AL95\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1700 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nCentral Subtropical Atlantic (AL95): Satellite images indicate that \nshowers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization \nassociated with an 1015 area of low pressure, Invest AL95, located \nabout 348 nautical miles southeast of Bermuda. Scattered to numerous \nmoderate isolated strong convection is present north of 23N between \n49W and 62W. Some fresh to locally strong winds are found near this \nlow, north of 28N between 55W and 60W. Further development of the \nlow is possible, and this system could become a short-lived tropical \ndepression or storm during the next couple of days while it moves \nnorthward and north-northeastward, well northeast of Bermuda. This \nsystem has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next \n48 hours and 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather \nOutlook at website: https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml \nfor more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 33W south of\n19N, moving quickly westward at 20 to 25 kt. Scattered moderate \nconvection is noted from 04N to 09N between 31W and 39W, and from\n11N to 13N between 34W and 36W.\nA central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 53W south of \n20N, moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate \nconvection is near the northern portion of the wave from 19N to\n23N between 47W and 53W. This wave was seen nicely at the surface \nby recent ASCAT scatterometer data.\nAn eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 66W \nsouth of 20N along eastern Puerto Rico to north-central Venezuela, \nmoving quickly westward at 20 to 25 kt. A small patch of scattered\nmoderate convection is noted from 14N to 16N between 67W and 71W.\nA northwestern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 86W \nsouth of 21N from near the Yucatan Channel to central Honduras, \nmoving westward at around 10 kt. Only isolated to widely scattered \nshowers are near the wave axis. To the south over the far \nsouthwestern section of the Caribbean basin, scattered to numerous\nmoderate to strong convection is noted just behind the wave and\nnear the eastern extend of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough \nfrom 06N to 13N between 79W and 89W.\n \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of \nAfrica near 16N16W and continues southwestward to 06N42W. The ITCZ\nextends from 06N42W to 07N51W, then resumes west of a tropical\nwave from 09N55W to the coast of Venezuela at 09N61W. Aside from \nthe convection described in the section above, scattered moderate \nconvection is noted from 13N to 17N between 19W and 24N\napproaching portions of the Cabo Verde Islands, and from 07N to\n10N between 23W and 26W. This convection may be associated with or\nout ahead of the next tropical wave to emerge off the coast of\nAfrica.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nRelatively weak high pressure, anchored by a 1018 mb high center \nover the north-central Gulf at 27.5N90.5W, is generally allowing \nfor anticyclonic light to gentle winds across the basin Slight \nseas are present throughout the basin per buoy observations. \nScattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms remain are active\nover the Yucatan Peninsula and the southwestern Gulf offshore\nVeracruz, Mexico where a surface trough is present, and due to \nabundant upper moisture from the eastern Pacific which continues\nto advect eastward over southern Mexico. Isolated to widely\nscattered convection is also present near the coast of Florida\njust south of Apalachee Bay, and from offshore Tampa Bay west-\nsouthwestward about 300 nm, likely induced by a weak low-level\ntrough. \nFor the forecast, weak high pressure will remain centered over \ncentral Gulf through midweek, with the western Atlantic ridge \nbuilding westward into the basin thereafter. This will maintain \ngentle to moderate winds and mainly slight seas through the week. \nA surface trough will generate fresh winds north and west of the \nYucatan Peninsula in the early evenings through the period. The \ntrough will push further offshore through the Bay of Campeche \nduring the overnight hours. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease see the Tropical Waves section above for details on\nconvection in the basin, mainly confined to the southwest portion.\nThe pressure gradient associated to high pressure over the western\nAtlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America\nis sustaining fresh to locally strong trades primarily over the \nsouth-central Caribbean. Seas up to around 8 ft are with these \ntrades. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere,\nexcept over the northwestern part of the Caribbean north of 20N, \nwhere light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are \npresent.\nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between western Atlantic \nhigh pressure and low pressure in northern South America continue \nto maintain fresh to strong trades and resultant rough seas over \nthe south-central Caribbean through the week. Elsewhere, mainly \nmoderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail, aside \nfrom light to gentle winds and slight seas in the NW part of the \nbasin. Winds will occasionally increase through the week following\npassages of a series of relatively weak tropical waves that will \nquickly move west across the basin. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease refer to the Special Features section for more details on low \npressure, Invest AL95, with the potential for tropical cyclone \nformation.\nElongated surface troughing extends from north of the area well \noffshore the Carolinas through 31N78W to near Fort Pierce, Florida. \nSome isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen \non infrared satellite imagery from the northern Bahamas northward \nwithin 120-240 nm either side of the trough. To the east, a cold \nfront extends from near the Iberian Peninsula southwestward through \n31N16W to 29N26W to 1020 mb low pressure near 30N29W, then \nnorthwestward as a frontal trough. Limited convection is near these \nfeatures. Rough seas are found north of the front. Across the \nremainder of the basin, high pressure weak ridging dominates with a \n1020 high north of the area near 35N44W. Moderate to fresh trades \nare found from 10N to 22N north of the monsoon trough between the \nCabo Verde ISlands and 42W, and in a belt from there to near the low \npressure area, AL95.\nWinds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters. \nSeas are slight north of 20N and west of 60W, and moderate across \nthe remainder of the waters.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the low pressure of 1015 mb \ncentered near 28N60W is forecast to drift northwest today, then \naccelerate northward and out of the basin Mon. There is a low \nchance of tropical development of this low over the next 48 hours.\nOtherwise, high pressure will maintain light to gentle winds N of\n23N through the period. To the south, moderate to fresh trades \nwill prevail, with locally strong winds pulsing at times offshore \nHispaniola and into the Windward Passage. The northern portion of \na tropical wave will move across the waters S of about 23N and E \nof the Bahamas early next week freshening the trades. By Wed, the \nnorthern portion of another tropical wave may move across the SE \nportion of the area, increasing the trades over those waters. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1204020813651574786", "issued": "2026-08-23T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1204020813651574786"}