{"msg": "061\nAXPZ20 KNHC 231553\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Sun Aug 23 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1500 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Iselle forms today well offshore of Mexico. It is\ncentered near 15.3N 114.2W at 23/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest\nat 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum\nsustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous \nmoderate to strong convection is noted within 180 nm W semicircle\nand 90 nm E semicircle of center. A northwestward motion is \nexpected through Monday, followed by a gradual turn back toward \nthe west- northwest on Tuesday. Some strengthening is forecast \nduring the next couple of days, and Iselle could become a \nhurricane late Monday or early Tuesday. The outer periphery of \nIselle will bring strong winds and rough seas to the \nRevillagigedo Islands today. Tropical storm conditions are \npossible today, and storm conditions are expected tonight. \nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued\nby the National Hurricane Center at website -\nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest\nIselle NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at\nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nCentral East Pacific (EP91): Disorganized showers and thunderstorms \nare persisting with a broad area of low pressure located well to\nthe south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California \nPeninsula. Environmental conditions could support the development\nof a short-lived tropical depression during the next day or two \nbefore it interacts or merges with T.S. Iselle. This system has \na medium chance for tropical cyclone formation through 48 hrs, \nand also through 7 days.\nPlease refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at \nwebsite: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more \ndetails on these systems.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is along 86W/87W from 04N to 20N moving westward\nat 15 kt. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is\nnoted from 10N to 12N between 80W and 85W. this convective\nactivity is affecting southern  Nicaragua and northern Costa \nRica. \nA tropical wave is along 100W N of 04N to near Acapulco, Mexico,\nmoving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong\nconvection is observed from 10N to 16N between 96W and 105W.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N100W to 15N110W to \n10N123W to beyond 06N140W. Aside from the convection related to \nthe tropical waves, Invest area EP91 and T.S. Iselle described \nabove, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be\nfound from 06N to 13N between 90W and 97W, and from 03N to 10N W\nof 130W. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information\nabout recently upgraded T.S. Iselle and Invest area EP91. \nA ridge continues to dominate the offshore forecast waters of \nBaja California Norte supporting gentle to moderate NW winds and\nmoderate seas. Winds and seas associated with the outer periphery\nof T.S. Iselle are reaching the Revillagigedo Islands. gentle to\nmoderate Se to S winds are occurring in the Gulf of california\nwith slight to moderate seas. The highest seas are near the\nentrance to the Gulf. Fresh to strong N gap winds are across the\nGulf of Tehuantepec region and downwind to about 14N. Seas are \nup to 8 ft with these winds.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Iselle will move to 16.5N \n115.6W this evening, 17.9N 117.2W Mon morning, strengthen to a \nhurricane near 19.3N 118.7W Mon evening, 20.5N 120.3W Tue \nmorning, weaken to a tropical storm near 21.4N 121.9W Tue \nevening, and 22.0N 123.6W Wed morning. Iselle will change little \nin intensity as it moves to near 23.0N 127.2W early Thu. Fresh \nnortherly gap winds will continue to pulse to strong speeds over \nthe Gulf of Tehuantepec during the overnight into the early \nmorning hours through the next several days, with seas occasionally\nbuilding to 8 ft. A ridge will continue to dominate the offshore\nforecast waters of Baja California Norte today, supporting \nmainly gentle to moderate winds. Southerly wind flow will become \nfresh to locally strong over the north and central parts of the \nGulf of California today. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh to strong NE to E gap winds continue across the Papagayo \nregion and downwind to near 91W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. \nModerate or weaker winds are found elsewhere, with moderate seas \nin S swell. \nFor the forecast, high pressure will persist over the eastern Gulf\nof America and northwestern Caribbean into early next week, leading\nto fresh NE to E gap winds pulsing to strong speeds over the Papagayo\nregion each evening and night. Moderate to fresh winds extending\nwell downwind of Papagayo will impact the outer waters offshore \nof El Salvador and Guatemala through the middle of the week. South\nof the monsoon trough, gentle to locally moderate winds will persist\nthrough Wed night. Mainly moderate seas will prevail away from the\nGulf of Papagayo through the forecast period. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information about\nrecently upgraded T.S. Iselle and the Invest area EP91. \nHigh pressure of 1024 mb located near 42N133W extends a ridge \nsoutheastward into the northern forecast waters to offshore of \nBaja California Norte, supporting moderate to locally fresh NE to\nE winds from 10N to 26N W of 130W. Moderate or weaker winds and \nmoderate seas in mixed swell prevail elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, Another area of low pressure is expected to \ndevelop well south of the southern tip of the Baja California \nPeninsula during the middle portion of this week. Some slow \ndevelopment is expected thereafter, and a tropical depression \ncould form by the end of the week while the system moves \ngenerally west-northwestward. This system has a medium chance \nfor tropical cyclone formation through 7 days.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1203994655442042882", "issued": "2026-08-23T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1203994655442042882"}