{"id": "1203981173575974914", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-23T15:00:00Z", "msg": "541\nWTPA43 PHFO 231444\nTCDCP3\n \nTropical Storm Moke Discussion Number  13\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP022026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 AM HST Sun Aug 23 2026\n\nMoke continues to pulse some convection in the northern semicircle, \nthough much of the southern portion of the storm is exposed due to \npersistent shear.  The initial intensity is held at 40 kt given \nlittle change in the overall organization of the cyclone during the \npast several hours.  This is also in agreement with earlier \naircraft data and close to recent Dvorak estimates.\n\nThe storm is expected to move through a challenging environment \nduring the next several days, with plentiful mid-level dry air and \nmoderate shear in its path.  These conditions will likely beat out \nthe warm sea-surface temperatures, and Moke should struggle to \nproduce sustained deep convection in this regime.  Shear is \nforecast to increase in 2-3 days, and the storm is expected to \nweaken into a tropical depression or remnant low around that time.  \nThe new forecast is a bit lower than the last one late in the \nperiod and shows an earlier transition to a post-tropical cyclone.  \nIt should be mentioned that more models are now showing the system \nopening up into a trough of low pressure even earlier than shown \nbelow due to the harsh environment and Moke's forward speed.  \n \nMoke is moving westward at about 13 kt, wobbling a bit as \nconvective bursts briefly pull the system north of due west.  A \ngeneral west-northwestward motion is anticipated during the next \nseveral days as a strong low- to mid-level ridge remains to the \nnorth of the cyclone. This track should bring the center of Moke a \ncouple of hundred miles south of the Big Island today and then well \nsouth of the rest of the main Hawaiian Islands thereafter. The \nmodel guidance is a bit south of the last forecast, and the NHC \ntrack is moved in that direction. Despite the center of Moke \nremaining south of the Hawaiian Islands, the cyclone is expected to \npass close enough to produce a period of gusty winds and heavy \nrainfall across portions of the islands during the next couple of \ndays.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Moke will begin to\nimpact the Big Island of Hawaii today. Rain will then spread \nwestward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands through\nMonday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and\nmudslides for the windward and southeast Big Island, especially in\nsteep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala.\n \n2. Although the strongest winds associated with Moke are expected to\npass south of the Hawaiian Islands, strong gusty winds are likely,\nparticularly in areas within and downslope of higher terrain.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  23/1500Z 15.2N 155.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  24/0000Z 15.3N 157.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  24/1200Z 15.6N 159.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  25/0000Z 16.0N 162.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  25/1200Z 16.7N 164.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 60H  26/0000Z 17.5N 167.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  26/1200Z 18.4N 170.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}