{"id": "1203979108827889666", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-23T15:00:00Z", "msg": "305\nWTPA42 PHFO 231434\nTCDCP2\n \nTropical Storm Lala Discussion Number  45\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 AM HST Sun Aug 23 2026\n\nThe presentation of Tropical Storm Lala has not changed much on\ninfrared satellite imagery over the past six hours, with deep\nconvection limited to the south and eastern semicircles. Subjective\nDvorak estimates from JTWC and HFO are both T3.5/55 kt, and\nobjective intensity estimates are closer to 50 kt. For this\nadvisory, the initial intensity is lowered to 55 kt, which could be\ngenerous but is consistent with a steady decay of the cyclone over\ncooler waters.\n\nLala appears to have slightly decelerated on a west-northwestward \nheading (300/4 kt), as it is steered by a weak mid-level ridge \npositioned just south and east of the central Aleutian Islands. The \ntropical storm should continue on a generally west-northwestward to \nnorthwestward heading through the remainder of the forecast period \nas the ridge slides eastward. Lala's forward motion is not expected \nto change much, and remain somewhat slow. The track guidance this \ncycle remains in decent agreement on this scenario, though there \ncontinues to be some cross-track spread, with the GFS presenting a \nmore eastward solution and the Google Deep Mind showing a more \nwestward solution. The updated track forecast is again slightly \nslower than the previous one, and is again nudged westward toward \nthe latest corrected multi-model consensus (HCCA).\n \nThe waters near the tropical storm are around 26C, with light shear \nand dry mid-level air. The shear and mid-level moisture are not \nlikely to change much through the forecast period, so Lala should \nonly weaken gradually as it moves over progressively cooler waters. \nCooler upper tropospheric temperatures, which increase tropospheric \ninstability, could counter some of the effect, at least initially, \nof the sea surface temperatures. By 120 h, Lala is forecast to \nbecome a post-tropical remnant low, in agreement with the GFS and \nECMWF simulated satellite imagery and the large-scale environmental \ndiagnostics from the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction \nScheme (SHIPS) guidance. The new intensity forecast is consistent \nwith the previous one.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  23/1500Z 32.1N 173.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  24/0000Z 32.5N 174.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  24/1200Z 33.1N 174.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  25/0000Z 33.8N 175.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  25/1200Z 34.3N 176.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 60H  26/0000Z 34.9N 177.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  26/1200Z 35.6N 177.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  27/1200Z 37.2N 179.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n120H  28/1200Z 39.1N 178.9E   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n \n"}