{"msg": "858\nAXNT20 KNHC 231053\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Sun Aug 23 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1045 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 30W south of\n19N moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to \nisolated strong convection is within 240 nm west of the southern \nportion of the wave axis from 05N to 09N.\nA central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 51W south of \n20N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection\nis near the northern portion of the wave from 18N to 20N between \nthe wave and 48W.\nAn eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 63W \nsouth of 20N. It is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers \nand isolated thunderstorms are noted within 180 nm east of the \nwave axis from 12N to 16N, including over some sections of the\nLesser Antilles.\nA western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 85W south of \n21N, and is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Only isolated showers \nare near the wave axis. To the south over the far southwestern\nsection of the basin, numerous strong convection is just offshore\nCosta Rica and northern Panama. Some of this activity extends \ninland northern Costa Rica.\n \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of \nAfrica near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 12N23W and\nwest-southwestward to 08N32W and to 07N40W, where it transitions\nto the ITCZ to near 10N48W. Aside from the convection described \nin the section above, scattered moderate convection is within \n30 nm of the trough between 19W-21W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nRelatively weak high pressure, anchored by a 1017 mb high center \nover the west-central Gulf, is generally allowing for gentle to \nmoderate winds. Slight seas are present throughout the basin per \nbuoy observations and a couple of overnight satellite altimeter data \npasses.\nScattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms remain quite \nactive over the Yucatan Peninsula and over southeastern \nMexico. Abundant upper moisture from the eastern Pacific is\nadvecting eastward over southern Mexico, the southwestern Gulf \nand toward the Yucatan Peninsula.\nFor the forecast, the high pressure will remain centered over \ncentral Gulf through midweek generally maintaining gentle to \nmoderate winds and generally slight seas. Atlantic high pressure \nwill then build westward into the central Gulf afterward. A \nsurface trough will generate fresh winds north and west of the \nYucatan Peninsula in the early evenings through the period. The \ntrough will push further offshore through the Bay of Campeche \nduring the overnight hours. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nThe pressure gradient associated to high pressure over the western\nAtlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America\nis sustaining fresh to strong trades primarily over the south-\ncentral Caribbean. Seas up to 8 ft are with these trades as\ndetected in overnight satellite altimeter data passes. Moderate to \nfresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere, except over the \nnorthwestern part of the Caribbean, where light to gentle winds and \nslight to moderate seas are present.\nScattered showers and thunderstorms are over the central part of the \nbasin from 13N to 19N between 68W and 70W, and over the waters \nbetween Jamaica and Haiti, reaching to the Windward Passage.\nFor the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient between \nthe western Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure \nin northern South America will continue to maintain fresh to \nstrong trades and resultant rough seas over the south-central \nCaribbean through next week. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh \ntrades and moderate seas will prevail, aside from light to gentle \nwinds and slight seas in the NW part of the basin. A weak tropical\nwave over the far eastern Caribbean near 63W will move across the\nbasin during the upcoming week. Another weak tropical wave will \nenter the eastern Caribbean Mon night and reach the western part \nof the basin late in the week. Yet, another tropical wave may \napproach the Lesser Antilles and far eastern Caribbean late on \nWed, then move across the eastern Caribbean Thu and Thu night.\nThe gradient associated with these waves will lead to periods of \nenhanced winds after their passages. Scattered showers and \nthunderstorms near these waves may be capable of producing strong \ngusty winds.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nHigh pressure is over the majority of the Atlantic waters. It is \non the weak side over the western half of the basin. A 1019 mb\nhigh center is analyzed near 29N70W. To its east, a surface \ntrough extends from near 31N58.5W to a weak 1018 mb low pressure \nat 30N59W, and continues from the low pressure to 27N61W. This \nsystem is part of a broad low pressure area that is located a few\nhundred nautical miles SE of Bermuda. Scattered showers and \nthunderstorms are present N of 24N between 55W and 63W. Moderate \nto fresh southeast winds are east of the trough to near 50W while \nlight and variable winds are west of the trough to near 73W. Seas \nare 3 to 5 ft west of about 50W. The remainder of the basin\nis under the influence of a broad 1027 mb high pressure that \nis analyzed N of he region at 36N42.5W. The related pressure \ngradient is sustaining moderate to fresh northeast to east winds\nfrom 10N to 25N east of 50W, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. A cold front \nextends from near 31N17W to 30N45W, and continues northwestward from \nthere to near 33N35W. Broken to overcast low to mid-level clouds \nalong with possible isolated showers are along and near the frontal \nboundary.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the low pressure SE of Bermuda will \ndrift westward on Sun, then accelerate northward early next week.\nOtherwise, high pressure will maintain light to gentle winds N of\n23N through the period. To the south, moderate to fresh trades \nwill prevail, with locally strong winds pulsing at times offshore \nHispaniola and into the Windward Passage. The northern portion of \na tropical wave will move across the waters S of about 23N and E \nof the Bahamas early next week freshening the trades. By Wed, the \nnorthern portion of another tropical wave may move across the SE \nportion of the area, increasing the trades over those waters. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1203935679768690690", "issued": "2026-08-23T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1203935679768690690"}