{"msg": "718\nAXPZ20 KNHC 231010\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Sun Aug 23 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0940 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nAs is normal during EL Nino year, the eastern Pacific remains\nactive. The national Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring two\ntropical disturbances with the potential for tropical cyclone\ndevelopment offshore of southwestern Mexico. These systems are \nInvest areas EP91 and EP92.\nSouthwest of Mexico (EP92): Showers and thunderstorms are \nbecoming better organized in association with a broad area of low\npressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the \nsouthern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Environmental \nconditions are favorable for further development, and a tropical \ndepression or tropical storm is expected to form today as the \nsystem moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. Regardless of \ndevelopment, this system is expected to bring fresh to strong\nwinds and rough seas to the Jalisco outer offshores today, and\nnear gale-force to gale-force winds and rough seas to the Baja \nCalifornia Sur outer offshore waters tonight into Tue. This \nsystem has a high chance for tropical cyclone formation through \n48 hrs, and also through 7 days. \nCentral East Pacific (EP91): Disorganized showers and \nthunderstorms are persisting with a broad area of low pressure \nlocated well to the south-southwest of the southern tip of the \nBaja California Peninsula. Environmental conditions could support\nthe development of a short-lived tropical depression during the \nnext day or two before it interacts or merges with the \ndisturbance to its east (EP92). This system has a medium chance \nfor tropical cyclone formation through 48 hrs, and also through 7\ndays.\nPlease refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at \nwebsite: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more \ndetails on these systems.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave extends from 03N to 17N with axis near 99W, moving\nwestward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong \nconvection is from 05N to 16N between 96W and 105W. \n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 10N100W to 14N115W to \n06N131W. The ITCZ begins near 06N131W and continues beyond\n05N140W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave \nand Invest areas described above, scattered moderate to isolated \nstrong convection is observed from 00N to 14N E of 93W, and from\n00N to 08N W of 128W. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nSurface ridging continue to dominates the offshore forecast \nwaters of Baja California Norte while lower pressure associated\nwith Invest EP92 dominates the Baja California Sur offshores.\nGentle to moderate NW winds and moderate seas are ongoing across\nthe Baja California Norte offshores while fresh to strong winds\nand rough seas are already affecting the outer Jalisco and Baja\nCalifornia Sur offshore waters. A surface trough along the\nPeninsula is supporting moderate to fresh SE winds along the Gulf\nof California along with slight to moderate seas. Otherwise, fresh\nto strong N gap winds are across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region \nand downwind to about 14N. Seas are up to 8 ft with these winds.\nFor the forecast, fresh northerly gap winds will continue to \npulse to strong speeds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the \novernight into the early morning hours through the next several \ndays, with seas occasionally building to 8 ft. A ridge will \ncontinue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja \nCalifornia Norte today, supporting mainly gentle to moderate \nwinds. Southerly wind flow will become fresh to locally strong \nover the north and central parts of the Gulf of California \ntoday. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds and rough seas \nassociated with Invest EP92 will continue to affect the Jalisco \nand Baja California Sur outer offshore waters through at least \nTue with gale-force winds likely affecting the Revillagigedo \nIslands tonight into Mon. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh to strong NE to E gap winds continue across the Papagayo \nregion and downwind to near 91W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. \nModerate or weaker winds are found elsewhere, with moderate seas \nin S swell. \nFor the forecast, high pressure will persist over the eastern Gulf\nof America and northwestern Caribbean into early next week, leading\nto fresh NE to E gap winds pulsing to strong speeds over the Papagayo\nregion each evening and night. Moderate to fresh winds extending\nwell downwind of Papagayo will impact the outer waters offshore \nof El Salvador and Guatemala through the middle of next week. \nSouth of the monsoon trough, gentle to locally moderate winds \nwill persist through Wed night. Mainly moderate seas will prevail\naway from the Gulf of Papagayo through the forecast period. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nsystems that have the potential for tropical cyclone formation. \nHigh pressure of 1025 mb located near 40N135W extends a ridge \nsoutheastward into the northern forecast waters to offshore of \nBaja California Norte, supporting moderate to locally fresh NE \nto E winds from 10N to 26N W of 130W. Moderate or weaker winds \nand moderate seas in mixed swell prevail elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, another area of low pressure is expected to \ndevelop well south of the southern tip of the Baja California \nPeninsula during the middle portion of next week. Some slow \ndevelopment is expected thereafter, and a tropical depression \ncould form by the end of next week while the system moves \ngenerally west-northwestward. Regardless of tropical cyclone \ndevelopment, EP92, described above, is forecast to bring at \nleast gale-force winds and rough seas to the immediate waters\nadjacent to the Baja California Sur and Jalisco offshores. \nLittle change is expected in the marine conditions elsewhere.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1203927141723471874", "issued": "2026-08-23T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1203927141723471874"}