{"id": "1203910190133641218", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-23T09:00:00Z", "msg": "468\nWTPA43 PHFO 230843\nTCDCP3\n \nTropical Storm Moke Discussion Number  12\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP022026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 PM HST Sat Aug 22 2026\n \nMoke's overall organization has changed little during the past \nseveral hours. Persistent southwesterly vertical wind shear and dry \nmid-level air have eroded much of the convection that was present \nearlier, leaving the low-level circulation exposed. Convective \ncoverage remains limited, aside from occasional bursts of deep \nconvection near and north of the center. Recent satellite-derived \nwind data showed peak winds of around 40 kt north of the \ncirculation, while recent Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter \naircraft data measured peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 46 kt in \nthe northeastern quadrant. These data, along with the overall \nsatellite presentation, support maintaining the initial intensity at \n40 kt for this advisory.\n \nMoke continues to move west-northwestward, with an initial motion of \n280/10 kt. A general west-northwestward motion is expected to \ncontinue during the next several days as a strong low- to mid-level \nridge remains to the north of the cyclone. This track should bring \nthe center of Moke a couple of hundred miles south of the Big Island \non Sunday and then well south of the smaller main Hawaiian Islands \nthereafter. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and the \nNHC forecast is very similar to the previous forecast. Despite the \ncenter of Moke remaining south of the Hawaiian Islands, the cyclone \nis expected to pass close enough to produce a period of gusty winds \nand heavy rainfall across portions of the islands during the next \ncouple of days.\n \nMoke has likely peaked in intensity over the past 24 h. Although\nvertical wind shear is forecast to decrease somewhat during the next\nday, an increasingly dry and stable surrounding environment should\nlimit any chances for additional strengthening and likely cause Moke\nto begin a steady weakening trend on Sunday. Thereafter, increasing\nvertical wind shear and continued entrainment of dry air should\ncause Moke to weaken further through early next week. By around 96\nh, both the GFS and ECMWF depict Moke becoming largely devoid of\ndeep convection, and the cyclone could degenerate into a remnant low\nby Wednesday, then dissipate by day 5. The latest NHC intensity\nforecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies near the\nmiddle of the guidance envelope.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Moke will begin to \nimpact the Big Island of Hawaii early Sunday morning. Rain will then \nspread westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands through \nMonday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and \nmudslides for the windward and southeast Big Island, especially in \nsteep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala.\n \n2. Although the strongest winds associated with Moke are expected to \npass south of the Hawaiian Islands, strong gusty winds are likely, \nparticularly in areas within and downslope of higher terrain.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  23/0900Z 15.2N 153.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  23/1800Z 15.4N 155.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  24/0600Z 15.8N 158.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  24/1800Z 16.3N 160.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  25/0600Z 17.0N 163.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 60H  25/1800Z 17.6N 165.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  26/0600Z 18.0N 168.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  27/0600Z 19.1N 173.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}