{"id": "1203839606054912002", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-23T03:00:00Z", "msg": "859\nWTPA42 PHFO 230244\nTCDCP2\n \nTropical Storm Lala Discussion Number  43\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 PM HST Sat Aug 22 2026\n \nLala has a good structure of curved convective bands surrounding a \nragged and intermittent eye. However, the cloud tops are not cold, \nwith tops of -50C to -55C confined to small areas near the center. \nThe various satellite intensity estimates range from 45-65 kt and \nare trending slowly downward, while an earlier ASCAT overpass showed \nmaximum winds between 50-55 kt. Based on these data and the \npossibility of undersampling of the ASCAT data, the initial \nintensity is reduced to 60 kt. Thus, Lala is downgraded to a \ntropical storm. \n\nThe initial motion is 320/5 kt. During the forecast period, Lala \nshould be steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to the north, with \nthis feature expected to build northwestward due to a developing \nbaroclinic trough over the far northwestern Pacific. This pattern \nshould cause Lala to move on a general slow northwestward track.  \nThere is little change to the track guidance, and the new forecast \ntrack is similar to the previous forecast.\n\nDespite the high latitudes of the forecast, Lala is likely to stay \nwell away from any baroclinic zones that could cause extratropical \ntransition. The cyclone is expected to remain in an area of light \nto moderate shear for the next several days, so the intensity will \nbe controlled mainly by sea surface temperatures and moisture. The \nstorm has another 24 h over sea surface temperatures of 26C, after \nwhich the water gets colder along the forecast track. The new \nintensity forecast follows the trend of the guidance in showing a \nslow weakening over the next several days. As before, Lala is \nforecast to lose its convection and become post-tropical around  \n120 h as suggested by simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and \nECMWF models.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  23/0300Z 31.5N 172.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  23/1200Z 32.0N 173.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  24/0000Z 32.7N 174.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  24/1200Z 33.3N 174.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  25/0000Z 33.9N 175.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 60H  25/1200Z 34.7N 176.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  26/0000Z 35.4N 176.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  27/0000Z 37.2N 178.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n120H  28/0000Z 39.1N 180.0E   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n \n"}