{"id": "1203838616531894274", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-23T03:00:00Z", "msg": "646\nWTPA43 PHFO 230239\nTCDCP3\n \nTropical Storm Moke Discussion Number  11\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP022026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 PM HST Sat Aug 22 2026\n \nMoke has weakened slightly during the past several hours. The \npersistent deep convection that had been located over and north of \nthe circulation overnight and through the morning hours has largely \ncollapsed, with cloud tops warming noticeably. This deterioration \nappears to be due, at least in part, to persistent southwesterly \nvertical wind shear and dry mid-level air. Peak 700-mb flight-level \nwinds from the reconnaissance aircraft have been around 43 kt, while \na UAS measured peak winds of about 38 kt while sampling near the \nsurface in the northeast quadrant. These data, along with the \ndeteriorating satellite presentation, support lowering the initial \nintensity to 40 kt for this advisory.\n \nMoke continues to move west-northwestward, with an initial motion of\n280/12 kt. A general west-northwestward motion is expected to\ncontinue during the next several days as a low- to mid-level ridge\nstrengthens to the north of the cyclone. This track should bring the\ncenter of Moke a couple of hundred miles south of the Big Island on\nSunday and then well south of the smaller main Hawaiian Islands\nthereafter. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and the\nNHC forecast is very similar to the previous forecast. Despite the\ncenter of Moke remaining south of the Hawaiian Islands, the cyclone\nis expected to pass close enough to produce a period of gusty winds\nand heavy rainfall across portions of the islands during the next\ncouple of days.\n \nMoke appears to be near its peak intensity, if it has not already\nreached it. Although vertical wind shear is forecast to decrease\nsomewhat during the next day, an increasingly dry and stable\nsurrounding environment should limit additional strengthening and\nlikely cause Moke to begin weakening on Sunday. Thereafter,\nincreasing vertical wind shear and continued entrainment of dry air\nshould result in a gradual weakening trend through early next week.\nBy around 96 h, both the GFS and ECMWF depict Moke becoming largely\ndevoid of deep convection, and the cyclone could degenerate into a\nremnant low by Wednesday, then dissipate by day 5. The latest NHC\nintensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies near\nthe middle to upper end of the guidance envelope.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Moke will begin to\nimpact the Big Island of Hawaii late tonight, with rain spreading\nwestward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands Sunday into\nMonday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and\nmudslides for the windward and southeast Big Island, especially in\nsteep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala.\n \n2. Although the strongest winds associated with Moke are expected to\npass south of the Hawaiian Islands, strong gusty winds are likely,\nparticularly in areas within and downslope of higher terrain.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  23/0300Z 15.3N 152.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  23/1200Z 15.6N 153.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  24/0000Z 15.9N 156.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  24/1200Z 16.3N 158.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  25/0000Z 16.8N 161.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 60H  25/1200Z 17.3N 163.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  26/0000Z 18.0N 166.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  27/0000Z 18.9N 172.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}