{"msg": "509\nAXPZ20 KNHC 222110\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Sat Aug 22 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2100 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nAs is normal during EL Nino year, the eastern Pacific remains\nactive. The national Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring two\ntropical disturbances with the potential for tropical cyclone\ndevelopment offshore of southwestern Mexico. These systems are \nInvest areas EP91 and EP92.\nSouthwest of Mexico (EP92): Showers and thunderstorms are quickly \nbecoming better organized in association with a broad area of \nlow pressure located several hundred miles south of the southern \ntip of the Baja California Peninsula. However, recent satellite-\nderived wind data indicates that the system does not yet have a \nwell-defined circulation. Environmental conditions are quite \nfavorable for development, and a tropical depression or tropical \nstorm is expected to form on Sunday as the system moves west-\nnorthwestward at around 10 kt. This system has a high chance for\ntropical cyclone formation through 48 hrs, and also through 7 \ndays. \nCentral East Pacific (EP91): Disorganized showers and thunderstorms \nare persisting with a broad area of low pressure located well to\nthe south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California \nPeninsula. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual \ndevelopment, and a tropical depression could form before it \ninteracts with, or merges with the disturbance to its east (EP92)\nlate this weekend or early next week. This system has a medium \nchance for tropical cyclone formation through 48 hrs, and also  \nthrough 7 days.\nPlease refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at \nwebsite: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more \ndetails on these systems.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is along 97W, N of 03N, moving westward at 15 to\n20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from \n09N to 12N between 93W and 99W. \n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 10N100W to 13N111W to \n07N140W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave\nand Invest areas described above, scattered moderate to isolated \nstrong convection is observed from 04N to 09N E of 91W, and from\n01N to 07N W of 134W. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nA ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California\nproducing gentle to moderate NW to N winds with moderate seas.\nGentle to moderate winds and slight seas prevail across the\nnorthern and central Gulf of California while moderate to fresh \nwinds and slight to moderate seas are noted over the southern \npart of the Gulf. High pressure over east-central Mexico, combined\nwith a surface trough moving across the Bay of Campeche, continues\nto support fresh to strong N gap winds across the Gulf of \nTehuantepec region and downwind to about 14N based on a recent \nscatterometer pass. Seas are up to 8 ft with these winds. Fresh \nto strong E to SE, associated with the Invest area EP92, are noted\nin the outer offshore waters of SW Mexico, particularly from 15N\nto 17N between 105W and 112W.\nFor the forecast, fresh northerly gap winds will continue to pulse\nto strong speeds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the overnight\ninto the early morning hours through the next several days, with\nseas occasionally building to 8 ft. A ridge will continue to dominate\nthe offshore forecast waters of Baja California the remainder of\nthe weekend supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds. Southerly\nwind flow will become fresh to locally strong over the north \nand central parts of the Gulf of California tonight and Sun. \nWinds and seas associated with currently Invest area EP92 are\nexpected to reach the Revillagigedo Islands on Sun. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh to strong NE to E gap winds continue across the Papagayo \nregion and downwind to near 90W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. \nModerate or weaker winds are found elsewhere, with moderate seas \nin S swell. \nFor the forecast, high pressure will persist over the eastern Gulf\nof America and northwestern Caribbean into early next week, leading\nto fresh NE to E gap winds pulsing to strong speeds over the Papagayo\nregion each evening and night. Moderate to fresh winds extending\nwell downwind of Papagayo will impact the outer waters offshore \nof El Salvador and Guatemala through the middle of next week. \nSouth of the monsoon trough, gentle to locally moderate winds \nwill persist through Wed night. Mainly moderate seas will prevail\naway from the Gulf of Papagayo through the forecast period. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nsystems that have the potential for tropical cyclone formation. \nHigh pressure of 1027 mb located near 34N144W extends a ridge \nsoutheastward into the northern forecast waters to offshore of \nBaja California supporting moderate to locally fresh NE to E \nwinds from 10N to 20N W of 120W. Fresh to strong S to SW winds \nand moderate to rough seas are noted S of the monsoon trough \nbetween 115W and 125W. These winds are just S of Invest EP91. \nModerate or weaker winds and moderate seas in mixed swell prevail\nelsewhere. Fresh to strong winds are also occurring within 210 \nnm NE quadrant and 180 nm SE quadrant of Invest EP92. Moderate or \nweaker winds are found elsewhere, with moderate seas in mixed NE\nand S swell.\nFor the forecast, regardless of tropical cyclone development, the\nfeatures described above are forecast to bring increasing winds \nand rough seas roughly across the waters S of 20N between 100W \nand 120W the remainder of the weekend. Little change is expected\nin the marine conditions elsewhere.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1203773911385505794", "issued": "2026-08-22T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1203773911385505794"}