{"id": "1203767527070203906", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-22T21:00:00Z", "msg": "444\nWTPA43 PHFO 222038\nTCDCP3\n \nTropical Storm Moke Discussion Number  10\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP022026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 AM HST Sat Aug 22 2026\n\nMoke has been generally steady state throughout the\nmorning. The storm is producing a concentrated area of deep\nconvection near the center and on its north side, and microwave\nimages show that banding features are fairly well organized over\nthe northern half of the system. However, banding features remain\nquite limited south of the center, and total precipitable water\nimagery shows dry air beginning to wrap into that portion of the\ncirculation. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are currently\ninvestigating the storm, and so far have found winds to support\nmaintaining the initial intensity at 45 kt. This estimate is also \nin line with the latest satellite estimates.\n \nThe tropical storm continues to move to the west-northwest at about\n10 kt. This general motion is expected to persist during the next\nseveral days as a low- to mid-level ridge strengthens to the north\nof the storm. This track should bring the center of Moke roughly a\ncouple of hundred miles to the south of the Big Island on Sunday and\nthen well south of the smaller main Hawaiian Islands after that.\nSince Moke is expected to remain compact, and because there is high\nconfidence in the short term track forecast, no tropical storm\nwatches or warnings appear to be necessary for Hawaii. However, the\nstorm is expected to be close enough to produce gusty winds in\nportions of the Hawaiian Islands, especially in areas of high\nterrain, late tonight through early next week. In addition, most of\nthe associated moisture is expected to be on the north side of the\ncyclone, so areas of heavy rain are forecast there during the next\nfew days.\n \nMoke will likely reach its peak intensity soon, if it has not\nalready. The continued entrainment of stable air and an increase in\nshear should cause Moke to begin weakening on Sunday, with that\ntrend continuing into next week. The intensity models are in good\nagreement, and this forecast is fairly similar to the previous one.\nDissipation is now predicted by day 5, in agreement with most of\nthe physics-based and AI models that show Moke opening up into a\ntrough by then.\n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Moke will begin to \nimpact the Big Island of Hawaii late tonight, with rain spreading \nwestward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands Sunday into \nMonday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and \nmudslides for the windward and southeast Big Island, especially in \nsteep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala. \n \n2. Although the strongest winds associated with Moke are expected to\npass south of the Hawaiian Islands, strong gusty winds are likely,\nparticularly in areas within and downslope of higher terrain.\n \n3. Swells generated by the storm could produce elevated surf near\nexposed east and south facing shores of the Hawaiian Islands\nthrough early next week.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  22/2100Z 14.9N 151.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  23/0600Z 15.3N 152.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  23/1800Z 15.6N 155.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  24/0600Z 16.0N 157.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  24/1800Z 16.5N 160.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 60H  25/0600Z 17.0N 162.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  25/1800Z 17.5N 165.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  26/1800Z 18.7N 170.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n120H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}