{"id": "1203766733894483970", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-22T21:00:00Z", "msg": "363\nWTPA42 PHFO 222034\nTCDCP2\n \nHurricane Lala Discussion Number  42\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 AM HST Sat Aug 22 2026\n\nLala\u2019s convective structure hasn\u2019t changed much over the past 6 h, \nwhich consists of tightly curved bands.  Only some of the area of \nthese convective bands consists of deep convection with cloud tops \ncolder than -30C, whereas only moderate convection covers the \nremainder of the convective band area, with cloud top temperatures \nbetween 0C and -30C.  The latest subjective Dvorak classifications \nare T4.0/65 kt from JTWC and T3.5/55 kt from PHFO.  Since convection \nhas been fairly meager for a while now, and we are 12 hours removed \nfrom the earlier 09Z ASCAT pass mentioned in the discussion from the \n15Z advisory, the initial intensity it again nudged downward, and is \nset at 65 kt for this advisory. \n\nLala has slowed down over the past 12 hours, and the initial motion \nis estimated to be northwestward, or 305 degrees at 6 kt.  There is \nno change to the forecast track philosophy. Two mid- to upper-level \nridges, one to the north and one to the west of Lala will cause the \ncyclone to continue moving slowly northwestward through Monday, \nbefore it attempts to squeeze in between those two ridges by \nmidweek. The northwestward motion in 3-5 days will also be aided by \nan approaching upper-level trough well to the north of the system. \nOnly a small change to the right of the previous NHC track forecast \nhas been made, and the latest forecast is close to the latest HFIP \nCorrected Consensus (HCCA) model.\n \nRelatively dry air and decreasing sea-surface temperatures along \nLala's track will cause continued weakening.  The shear will \ncontinue to be weak, and Lala will be moving into an area of colder \nupper-tropospheric temperatures, so those positive factors will be \nenough so that only gradual weakening is expected over the next \nseveral days.  No major changes are made to the previous NHC \nintensity forecast, which lies near the middle of the guidance \nenvelope.  The system is now forecast to lose its convection and \nbecome post-tropical in about 5 days, as suggested by the GFS and \nECMWF simulated satellite imageries.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  22/2100Z 31.0N 172.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  23/0600Z 31.6N 173.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  23/1800Z 32.4N 174.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  24/0600Z 33.0N 174.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  24/1800Z 33.6N 175.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 60H  25/0600Z 34.4N 176.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  25/1800Z 35.1N 176.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  26/1800Z 37.0N 178.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  27/1800Z 38.8N 179.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n \n"}