{"msg": "106\nAXPZ20 KNHC 221539\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Sat Aug 22 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1500 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nSouthwest of Mexico (EP92): A broad area of low pressure located \nseveral hundred miles southwest of the coast of southwestern \nMexico is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms \nthat are starting to show signs of organization. This system is \nmoving west-northwestward and is likely to become a tropical \ndepression by the end of this weekend or early next week. This \nsystem is likely to merge with, or absorb, the disturbance to its\nwest (EP91) by late Sunday. This system has a medium chance for \ntropical cyclone formation through 48 hrs, and a high chance \nthrough 7 days. \nCentral East Pacific (EP91): A broad area of low pressure located \nwell to the south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja \nCalifornia Peninsula is producing disorganized showers and \nthunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for \ngradual development, and a tropical depression could form before \nit merges with the disturbance to its east (EP92) by late Sunday.\nThis system has a medium chance for tropical cyclone formation \nthrough 48 hrs, and a medium chance through 7 days.\nPlease refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at \nwebsite: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more \ndetails on these systems.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is along 95W, N of 03N, moving westward at 15 to\n20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 03N\nto 15N between 90W and 100W. \nA tropical wave is near 110W from 04N to 17N, moving westward at\n10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is\nnoted from 06N to 18N between 102W and 115W. A 1009 mb low\npressure is along the wave axis near 12.5N110W. This system is \nassociated with Invest EP92 discussed in the Special Features \nsection above.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 10N95W to 12.5N110W to\n08N140W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves\nand Invest areas described above, scattered moderate to strong \nconvection is observed from 03N to 08N E of 90W, and from 02N to \n10N W of 125W. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nA ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California\nproducing gentle to moderate NW to N winds with moderate seas\nwith the exception of moderate to fresh winds between Cabo San\nLazaro and Punta Eugenia. Light to gentle winds and slight seas \nprevail across the Gulf of California. High pressure over east- \ncentral Mexico, combined with a surface trough moving across the \nBay of Campeche, supports fresh to strong N gap winds across the \nGulf of Tehuantepec and downwind to about 13.5N. Seas are up to 8\nft with these winds. Fresh to strong E to SE are noted in the \nouter offshore waters of SW Mexico associated with Invest EP92.\nFor the forecast, fresh northerly gap winds will continue to pulse\nto strong speeds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the overnight\ninto the early morning hours through Wed night, with seas \noccasionally building to 8 ft. A ridge will continue to dominate \nthe offshore forecast waters of Baja California this weekend \nsupporting mainly gentle to moderate winds. Southerly wind flow \nwill return to the Gulf of California tonight and become fresh \nto locally strong over the north and central parts of the Gulf on\nSun. Winds and seas are expected to continue to build across the\nouter offshore waters of southwestern Mexico into early next \nweek in association with a developing area of low pressure, EP92, \nmoving west-northwestward and just outside of the offshore \nwaters.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh to strong NE to E gap winds continue across the Papagayo \nregion and downwind to near 90W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. \nModerate or weaker winds are found elsewhere, with moderate seas \nin S swell. \nFor the forecast, high pressure will persist over the eastern Gulf\nof America and northwestern Caribbean into early next week, leading\nto fresh NE to E gap winds pulsing to strong speeds over the Papagayo\nregion each evening and night. Moderate to fresh winds extending\nwell downwind of Papagayo will impact the outer waters offshore \nof El Salvador and Guatemala through mid next week. South of the\nmonsoon trough, gentle to locally moderate winds will persist \nthrough Wed night. Mainly moderate seas will prevail away from \nthe Gulf of Papagayo through the forecast period. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section and the Tropical Waves \nsection above for information on systems that have the potential\nfor tropical cyclone formation. \nHigh pressure across the NE Pacific extends a ridge southeastward\ninto the regional waters to offshore of Baja California\nsupporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds from 12N to 25N W of \n130W. Fresh to strong S to SW winds and moderate to rough seas \nare noted S of the monsoon trough between 115W and 121W. These \nwinds are just S of Invest EP91. Moderate or weaker winds and \nmoderate seas in mixed swell prevail elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, regardless of tropical cyclone development, the\nfeatures described above are forecast to bring increasing winds \nand rough seas roughly across the waters S of 20N between 100W \nand 120W this weekend. Little change is expected in the marine \nconditions elsewhere.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1203708880058187778", "issued": "2026-08-22T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1203708880058187778"}