{"id": "1203696241441079298", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-22T15:00:00Z", "msg": "666\nWTPA42 PHFO 221435\nTCDCP2\n \nHurricane Lala Discussion Number  41\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 AM HST Sat Aug 22 2026\n\nThe areal coverage of deep convection in association with Lala has \nbeen gradually decreasing over the past 12 to 18 h.  The latest \nsubjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from JTWC and PHFO are \na consensus T4.0/65 kt.  Recent objective satellite intensity \nestimates range from 50-62 kt.  A 22/0905 UTC ASCAT-C overpass had \nwind vectors as high as 64 kt.  Given the degraded appearance on \nsatellite imagery, but also taking into account the well-known \nlow-bias in the ASCAT instrument at those wind speeds, the intensity \nis nudged downward to 70 kt for this advisory.  The 34-kt wind \nradii were expanded in some of the quadrants based on the ASCAT \npass.\n\nLala appears to have made a short-term jog to the west-northwest and \nis also starting to decelerate, but the longer term motion is \nestimated to be northwestward, or 310 degrees at 9 kt.  Two mid- to \nupper-level ridges, one to the north and one to the west of Lala \nwill cause the cyclone to slow down to a forward speed of around 5 \nkt on Sunday and Monday while continuing northwestward, before it \nattempts to squeeze in between those two ridges in 3-5 days. The \nnorthwestward motion in 3-5 days will also be aided by an \napproaching upper-level trough well to the north of the system.  \nThere continues to be significant cross-track model spread in the \n3-5 day period.  The NHC forecast is slower and farther left \ncompared to the previous NHC forecast and is close to an average of \nthe latest HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) and Simple Consensus \n(TVCN) models.\n\nThe dry air getting into the core of Lala has been the culprit for \nthe recent weakening.  The shear is forecast to remain low through \nthe forecast period.  By the time the mid-level troposphere moistens \nslightly in a couple of days, Lala will have crossed the 26C \nsea-surface temperature isotherm into cooler waters, and will \ncontinue to move into progressively cooler water after that.  Since \nupper-level temperatures will also cool down in a few days along \nLala's path, only gradual weakening is forecast, and Lala could \nstill be a tropical cyclone in 4-5 days.  Only very small changes \nhave been made to the previous NHC forecast, which lies near the \nmiddle of the guidance envelope.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  22/1500Z 30.5N 172.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  23/0000Z 31.2N 173.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  23/1200Z 31.9N 174.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  24/0000Z 32.6N 174.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  24/1200Z 33.2N 175.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 60H  25/0000Z 34.0N 176.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  25/1200Z 34.8N 176.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  26/1200Z 36.5N 178.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  27/1200Z 38.8N 179.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n \n"}