{"id": "1203695876869128194", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-22T15:00:00Z", "msg": "656\nWTPA43 PHFO 221433\nTCDCP3\n \nTropical Storm Moke Discussion Number   9\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP022026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 AM HST Sat Aug 22 2026\n \nMoke is gaining some strength this morning with deep convection \nincreasing in intensity and extent. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters \nhave departed the storm, but during their last pass through the \ncenter they measured a minimum pressure of 994 mb and maximum 850 mb \nflight-level winds of 53 kt. These data support increasing the \ninitial wind speed to 45 kt for this advisory. This intensity \nestimate is also in agreement with the latest JTWC Dvorak \nclassification and objective estimates from UW-CIMSS. The aircraft \ndata and last night's ASCAT pass also showed that the \ntropical-storm-force wind radii are a little larger on the north \nside of the system while the radius of maximum wind has contracted. \nNonetheless, Moke remains a compact tropical storm. The NOAA and Air \nForce Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate the system \nagain later today.\n\nThe tropical storm is moving a little faster to the west-northwest, \nor 290/10 kt. This general motion is expected to persist during the \nnext several days as a low- to mid-level ridge strengthens to the \nnorth of the storm. This track should bring the center of Moke \nroughly a couple of hundred miles to the south of the Big Island \nlate tonight and early Sunday and then well south of the smaller \nmain Hawaiian Islands after that. Since Moke is expected to remain \ncompact, and because there is high confidence in the short term \ntrack forecast, no tropical storm watches or warnings appear to be \nnecessary for Hawaii. However, the storm is expected to be close \nenough to produce gusty winds in portions of the Hawaiian Islands, \nespecially in areas of high terrain, late tonight through early next \nweek. In addition, most of the associated moisture is expected to be \non the north side of the cyclone, so areas of heavy rain are \nforecast there during the next few days. \n \nMoke will likely strengthen a little more today while it remains in \ngenerally conducive environmental conditions. However, the \ncombination of dry air entrainment and an increase in vertical wind \nshear should cause the storm to gradually lose strength beginning \nSunday and continuing into next week. The intensity models are in \ngood agreement, and little change was made to the previous NHC \nforecast. In fact, most of the models show Moke dissipating toward \nthe end of the forecast period.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Moke will begin to \nimpact the Big Island of Hawaii late tonight, with rain spreading \nwestward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands Sunday into \nMonday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and \nmudslides for the windward and southeast Big Island, especially in \nsteep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala. \n \n2. Although the strongest winds associated with Moke are expected to\npass south of the Hawaiian Islands, strong gusty winds are likely,\nparticularly in areas within and downslope of higher terrain.\n \n3. Swells generated by the storm may cause life-threatening surf\nand rip current conditions through early next week for exposed east\nand south facing shores of the Hawaiian Islands.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  22/1500Z 14.8N 150.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  23/0000Z 15.2N 151.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  23/1200Z 15.6N 154.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  24/0000Z 16.0N 156.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  24/1200Z 16.4N 158.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 60H  25/0000Z 16.9N 161.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  25/1200Z 17.4N 163.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  26/1200Z 18.6N 169.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n120H  27/1200Z 19.4N 173.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n \n"}