{"msg": "960\nAXPZ20 KNHC 221003\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Sat Aug 22 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0950 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURE...\nSouthwest of Mexico (EP92): A broad area of low pressure located\nseveral hundred miles SW of the coast of SW Mexico is producing \na large area of disorganized showers and tstms. This system is \nmoving WNW and is likely to become a tropical depression by the \nend of this weekend or early next week before it interacts, or \npossibly merges with, the disturbance to its west (EP91). This \nsystem has a medium chance for tropical cyclone formation through\n48 hrs, and a high chance through 7 days. \nCentral East Pacific (EP91): A broad area of low pressure \nlocated several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the \nBaja California Peninsula is producing disorganized showers and \nthunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for \ngradual development, and a tropical depression could form by the\nend of this weekend before it interacts, or possibly merges \nwith, the disturbance to its east (EP92). This system has a \nmedium chance for tropical cyclone formation through 48 hrs, and \na medium chance through 7 days.\nPlease refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at \nwebsite: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more \ndetails on these systems.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is moving over eastern portions of the Tropical \nPacific basin with axis along 94W, N of 03N, moving westward at \n15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is \nfrom 03N to 17N between 90W and 102W. \nA tropical wave extends from 06N to 19N with axis near 108W,\nmoving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong \nconvection is noted from 08N to 18N between 100W and 114W. This\nwave is associated with Invest EP92 discussed in the Special\nFeatures section above.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 11N100W to 09N140W. \nAside from the convection related to the tropical waves described\nabove, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is \nobserved from 03N to 09N E of 90W, and from 04N to 13N between\n113W and 130W. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nA ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California\nproducing gentle to moderate NW to N winds with moderate seas. \nLight to gentle winds and slight seas prevail across the Gulf of \nCalifornia. High pressure over east-central Mexico, combined with\na surface trough moving across the Bay of Campeche, supports \nfresh to strong N gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and \ndownwind to about 14N. Seas are up to 8 ft with these winds. \nFresh E to SE are noted in the outer offshore waters of SW Mexico \nassociated with Invest EP92.\nFor the forecast, fresh northerly gap winds will continue to pulse\nto strong speeds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the overnight\ninto the early morning hours through Wed night, with seas \noccasionally building to 8 ft. A ridge will continue to dominate \nthe offshore forecast waters of Baja California this weekend \nsupporting mainly gentle to moderate winds. Southerly wind flow \nwill return to the Gulf of California tonight and become fresh \nto locally strong over the north and central parts of the Gulf on\nSun. Winds and seas are expected to continue to build across the\nouter offshore waters of southwestern Mexico into early next \nweek in association with a developing area of low pressure, EP92, \nmoving west-northwestward and just outside of the offshore \nwaters.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh to strong NE to E gap winds continue across the Papagayo \nregion and downwind to near 90W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. \nModerate or weaker winds are found elsewhere, with moderate seas \nin S swell. \nFor the forecast, high pressure will persist over the eastern Gulf\nof America and northwestern Caribbean into early next week, leading\nto fresh NE to E gap winds pulsing to strong speeds over the Papagayo\nregion each evening and night. Moderate to fresh winds extending\nwell downwind of Papagayo will impact the outer waters offshore \nof El Salvador and Guatemala through mid next week. South of the\nmonsoon trough, gentle to locally moderate winds will persist \nthrough Wed night. Mainly moderate seas will prevail away from \nthe Gulf of Papagayo through the forecast period. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section and the Tropical Waves \nsection above for information on systems that have the potential\nfor tropical cyclone formation. \nHigh pressure across the NE Pacific extends a ridge southeastward\ninto the regional waters to offshore of Baja California. Fresh \neasterly winds and seas to 7 ft in the periphery of Tropical \nStorm Moke in the Central Pacific basin are impacting the waters\nbetween 12N to 25N and W of 130W. Elsewhere, moderate to locally\nfresh winds are found between 104W and 112W, from the outer \nborder of the SW Mexican offshores to the monsoon with moderate \nto locally rough seas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas\nin mixed swell prevail elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, regardless of tropical cyclone development, the\nfeatures described above are forecast to bring increasing winds \nand seas roughly across the waters S of 20N between 100W and 120W\nthis weekend. Little change is expected in the marine conditions\nelsewhere.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1203642791229030402", "issued": "2026-08-22T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1203642791229030402"}