{"id": "1203628004686299138", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-22T09:00:00Z", "msg": "894\nWTPA43 PHFO 220848\nTCDCP3\n \nTropical Storm Moke Discussion Number   8\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP022026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 PM HST Fri Aug 21 2026\n \nModerate southwesterly vertical wind shear continues to displace the\ndeepest convection north of the low-level circulation center, where\nconvection has expanded in coverage and cloud-top temperatures have\ncooled to around -85 C over the past several hours. Despite the\nrecent increase in convection, data from an Air Force Reserve\nHurricane Hunter aircraft indicate little change in intensity, with\na central pressure of 999 mb and peak 850-mb flight-level winds of\n50 kt in the northeastern quadrant. Based on these data, the initial\nintensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory.\n \nMoke is moving west-northwestward, or 300/7 kt. There has been\nlittle change to the track forecast philosophy. A low- to mid-level\nridge is forecast to strengthen north of Moke during the next few\ndays, which should steer the cyclone west-northwestward at a\nslightly faster forward speed. This motion is expected to take the\ncore of Moke south of the main Hawaiian Islands this weekend into\nearly next week. The latest track guidance remains fairly tightly\nclustered, and the NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory.\nGiven the expected track south of the islands and the compact nature\nof the cyclone, the likelihood of tropical storm watches or warnings\nfor the main Hawaiian Islands remains very low. However, the\nenhanced pressure gradient north of Moke, combined with moisture\nassociated with the cyclone interacting with the island terrain,\nwill likely produce gusty winds and periods of heavy rainfall across\nportions of the state. These impacts could be aggravated by\nantecedent conditions from Lala last weekend, particularly in areas\nwhere soils remain saturated.\n \nSome additional strengthening is possible during the next day or so\ndespite the moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear currently\naffecting Moke. Thereafter, dry mid-level air is expected to become\nincreasingly entrained into the circulation while vertical wind\nshear remains unfavorable late this weekend into early next week.\nThese factors should cause Moke to gradually weaken as it passes\nsouth of the Hawaiian Islands. The latest NHC intensity forecast is\nsimilar to the previous advisory and remains near the upper end of\nthe guidance envelope.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Heavy rainfall associated with Moke will begin to impact the Big\nIsland of Hawaii late Saturday, with rain spreading westward across\nthe remainder of the Hawaiian Islands Sunday into Monday. This\nrainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides for the\nwindward and southeast Big Island, especially in steep terrain and\nover areas that were affected recently by Lala.\n \n2. Although the strongest winds associated with Moke are expected to\npass south of the Hawaiian Islands, strong gusty winds are likely,\nparticularly in areas within and downslope of higher terrain.\n \n3. Swells generated by the storm may cause life-threatening surf\nand rip current conditions this weekend and early next week for\nexposed east and south facing shores of the Hawaiian Islands.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  22/0900Z 14.4N 149.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  22/1800Z 15.0N 150.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  23/0600Z 15.4N 152.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  23/1800Z 15.8N 155.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  24/0600Z 16.4N 157.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 60H  24/1800Z 16.8N 160.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  25/0600Z 17.2N 162.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  26/0600Z 18.2N 167.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n120H  27/0600Z 19.2N 172.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n \n"}