{"msg": "989\nAXPZ20 KNHC 220408\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Sat Aug 22 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0350 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURE...\nCentral East Pacific (EP91): A broad area of low pressure \nlocated several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the \nBaja California Peninsula is producing disorganized showers and \nthunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for \ngradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form \nthis weekend or early next week before it interacts, or possibly \nmerges with, the disturbance to its east. This system has a \nhigh chance for tropical cyclone formation through 48 hrs, and a\nhigh chance through 7 days.\nPlease refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at \nwebsite: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more \ndetails on these systems.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is moving over eastern portions of the Tropical \nPacific basin with axis along 92W, N of 03N, moving westward at \n15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is \nfrom 03N to 15N between 86W and 100W. \nA broad area of low pressure is along a tropical wave with axis \nnear 107W. This system is moving west-northwestward and could \nbecome a tropical depression over the weekend or early next week \nbefore it interacts, or possibly merges with, the disturbance to \nits west (Invest EP91). Scattered moderate to isolated strong \nconvection is noted from 08N to 17N between 100W and 116W. This \nsystem has a low chance for tropical cyclone formation through 48\nhrs, and a medium chance through 7 days.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 08N84W to 10N110W to 07N140W. \nAside from the convection related to the tropical waves \ndescribed above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection\nis observed from 04N to 13N between 113W and 128W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nA ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California\nproducing gentle to moderate NW to N winds with moderate seas. \nLight to gentle winds and slight seas prevail across the Gulf of \nCalifornia. High pressure over east-central Mexico, combined with\na surface trough moving across the Bay of Campeche, supports \nfresh to strong N gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and \ndownwind to about 14N. Seas are up to 8 ft with these winds. \nFresh E to SE are noted in the outer offshore waters of SW Mexico \nassociated with the tropical wave near 107W.\nFor the forecast, fresh northerly gap winds will continue to pulse\nto strong speeds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the overnight\ninto the early morning hours through Sun night, with seas occasionally\nbuilding to 8 ft. A ridge will continue to dominate the offshore\nforecast waters of Baja California this weekend supporting mainly\ngentle to moderate winds. Southerly wind flow will return to the\nGulf of California Sat night and become fresh to locally strong\nover the north and central parts of the Gulf on Sun. Winds and seas\nare expected to build across the outer offshore waters of southwestern\nMexico into early next week in association with a developing area\nof low pressure moving west-northwestward and just outside of the\noffshore waters.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh to strong NE to E gap winds continue across the Papagayo \nregion and downwind to near 89W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. \nModerate or weaker winds are found elsewhere, with moderate seas \nin S swell. \nFor the forecast, high pressure will persist over the eastern Gulf\nof America and northwestern Caribbean into early next week, leading\nto fresh NE to E gap winds pulsing to strong speeds over the Papagayo\nregion each evening and night. Moderate to fresh winds extending\nwell downwind of Papagayo will impact the outer waters offshore \nof El Salvador and Guatemala through at least early next week. \nSouth of the monsoon trough, gentle to locally moderate winds will\npersist this weekend into early next week. Mainly moderate seas \nwill prevail away from the Gulf of Papagayo the next several \ndays. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section and the Tropical Waves \nsection above for information on systems that have the potential\nfor tropical cyclone formation. \nHigh pressure across the NE Pacific extends a ridge southeastward\ninto the regional waters to offshore of Baja California. Fresh \neasterly winds and seas to 7 ft in the periphery of Tropical \nStorm Moke in the Central Pacific basin are impacting the waters\nbetween 13N to 25N and W of 130W. Elsewhere, moderate to locally\nfresh winds are found between 100W and 110W, from the outer \nborder of the SW Mexican offshores to the monsoon with moderate \nto locally rough seas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas\nin mixed swell prevail elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, regardless of tropical cyclone development, the\nfeatures described above are forecast to bring increasing winds \nand seas roughly across the waters S of 20N between 100W and 120W\nthis weekend. Little change is expected in the marine conditions\nelsewhere.\nLooking ahead, another area of low pressure is expected to develop\nwell south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula \nduring the middle portion of next week. Some slow development is \nexpected thereafter while the system moves generally west- \nnorthwestward. This system has a low chance for tropical cyclone\nformation through 7 days.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1203572994376368130", "issued": "2026-08-22T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1203572994376368130"}