{"id": "1203554956800131074", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-22T03:00:00Z", "msg": "828\nWTPA42 PHFO 220236\nTCDCP2\n \nHurricane Lala Discussion Number  39\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 PM HST Fri Aug 21 2026\n \nLala has become more asymmetrical this afternoon due to strong\nsouthwesterly vertical wind shear displacing the convection mostly\nto the north of the low-level center. A recent GPM microwave pass\nshows that the low- and mid-level centers are becoming tilted due to\nthe shear. Dry air has also started to intrude into the system, with\nconvection warming and broken banding features. The latest\nsubjective and objective intensity aids have decreased as well\nfollowing the degraded satellite appearance, with estimates ranging\nfrom 63 to 77 kt. Using these estimates and the current satellite\ntrends, the intensity is lowered to 75 kt for this advisory.\n \nLala is moving northward at an estimated motion of 355/8 kt. The \nsystem should begin to turn northwestward later tonight into \nSaturday as a mid-level ridge builds to the east of the cyclone. \nLala will move around the western periphery of the ridge, towards \nthe northwest, throughout the forecast period at a slightly slower \nforward speed. The latest NHC track forecast is nudged slightly to \nthe left toward the latest consensus aids.\n \nAlthough the southwesterly shear is forecast to decrease later\ntonight or early Saturday, Lala is expected to track over\nprogressively cooler sea surface temperatures and remain embedded\nwithin a dry mid-level environment. Thus, the system is forecast to\ncontinue weakening throughout the forecast period. The latest NHC\nintensity forecast is similar to the previous and shows a gradual \nweakening trend.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  22/0300Z 29.4N 170.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  22/1200Z 30.1N 171.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  23/0000Z 31.0N 172.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  23/1200Z 31.8N 173.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  24/0000Z 32.3N 174.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 60H  24/1200Z 33.0N 174.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  25/0000Z 33.8N 175.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  26/0000Z 35.5N 177.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  27/0000Z 37.3N 178.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n \n"}