{"id": "1203554366873665538", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-22T03:00:00Z", "msg": "790\nWTPA43 PHFO 220233\nTCDCP3\n \nTropical Storm Moke Discussion Number   7\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP022026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 PM HST Fri Aug 21 2026\n\nMoke has changed little in organization over the past several hours.\nModerate southwesterly vertical wind shear continues to impart a\nslight northward tilt to the vortex, as indicated by Tail Doppler\nRadar data, with most of the deep convection displaced north of the\nlow-level circulation center. Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve\nHurricane Hunter aircraft support an initial intensity of 40 kt and\na minimum central pressure of 999 mb. Based on these observations\nand the overall satellite presentation, the initial intensity is\nheld at 40 kt for this advisory.\n \nMoke is moving west-northwestward, or 295/10 kt. There has been\nlittle change to the track forecast philosophy. A low- to mid-level\nridge is forecast to strengthen north of Moke during the next few\ndays, which should steer the cyclone west-northwestward at a\nslightly faster forward speed. This motion is expected to take the\ncore of Moke south of the main Hawaiian Islands this weekend into\nearly next week. The latest track guidance remains fairly tightly\nclustered, and the NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory.\nGiven the expected track south of the islands and the compact nature\nof the cyclone, the likelihood of tropical storm watches or warnings\nfor the main Hawaiian Islands remains very low. However, the\nenhanced pressure gradient north of Moke, combined with moisture\nassociated with the cyclone interacting with the island terrain,\nwill likely produce gusty winds and periods of heavy rainfall across\nportions of the state. These impacts could be aggravated by\nantecedent conditions from Lala last weekend, particularly in areas\nwhere soils remain saturated.\n \nSome additional strengthening is possible during the next day or so\nwhile Moke remains in generally favorable environmental conditions.\nThereafter, dry mid-level air is expected to become increasingly\nentrained into the circulation while vertical wind shear increases\nlate this weekend into early next week. These factors should cause\nMoke to gradually weaken as it passes south of the Hawaiian Islands.\nThe latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous\nadvisory and remains near the upper end of the guidance envelope.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Heavy rainfall associated with Moke will begin to impact the Big \nIsland of Hawaii late Saturday, with rain spreading westward across \nthe remainder of the Hawaiian Islands Sunday into Monday. This \nrainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides for the \nwindward and southeast Big Island, especially in steep terrain and \nover areas that were affected recently by Lala.\n \n2. Although the strongest winds associated with Moke are expected to\npass south of the Hawaiian Islands, strong gusty winds are likely,\nparticularly in areas within and downslope of higher terrain.\n \n3. Swells generated by the storm may cause life-threatening surf\nand rip current conditions this weekend and early next week for\nexposed east and south facing shores of the Hawaiian Islands.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  22/0300Z 14.0N 148.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  22/1200Z 14.5N 149.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  23/0000Z 15.2N 151.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  23/1200Z 15.8N 153.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  24/0000Z 16.2N 156.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 60H  24/1200Z 16.6N 159.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  25/0000Z 17.0N 161.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  26/0000Z 18.2N 166.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n120H  27/0000Z 18.6N 171.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n \n"}