{"msg": "242\nAXNT20 KNHC 212249\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Sat Aug 22 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2245 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is along 21W/22W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt.\nSome cyclonic circulation is noted near 11N21W. Scattered\nmoderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 12N\nbetween 20W and 25W.\nA second tropical wave is along n eastern Atlantic tropical wave\nhas its axis along 43W/44W south of 20N moving westward at 15 to\n20 kt. No significant convection is noted near the wave axis.\nA third tropical wave has its axis along 54W/55W south of 20N \nmoving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is\nnoted where the wave meets the ITCZ. \nA tropical wave is over the central Caribbean along 77W south of\n20N. It is moving westward at about 15 kt. Convection is limited\nnear the wave axis.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania\nnear 18N16W and continues southwestward to 11N42W. The ITCZ extends\nfrom 11N45W to 11N61W. Outside of convection associated with the\ntropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection\nis from 10N to 14N between 34W and 40W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nHigh pressure continues to dominate the Gulf region with a 1021\nmb center near 24N92W. This pattern is supporting mainly light \nto gentle winds and slight to moderate seas. The highest seas of \n3 to 4 ft are noted over the Bay of Campeche based on altimeter \ndata. Convection has flared-up over parts of Florida, the north- \ncentral Gulf, and along the coast of Mexico roughly between \nTuxpan and Veracruz. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to \ninduce this convective activity. \nFor the forecast, relatively weak high pressure centered over \nthe central Gulf will prevail into the middle of next week, \nsupporting gentle to moderate winds and slight to locally \nmoderate seas. A surface trough will generate fresh winds north \nand west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings. These \nwinds will spread westward away from the peninsula at night as \nthe trough migrates into the SW Gulf. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nThe pressure gradient between weak high pressure centered S of \nBermuda and low pressure over northern Colombia is supporting \nfresh to strong trades over the most of the central Caribbean, \nwith moderate to fresh trades elsewhere, with the exception of \ngentle winds over the NW part of the basin. Seas are moderate, \nexcept 7 to 9 ft in the south-central Caribbean and slight seas \nover the northwest Caribbean. Scattered to numerous showers and\nthunderstorms are noted over Cuba. Scattered showers, with\nembedded thunderstorms, are seen over the NW Caribbean.\nElsewhere, shallow moisture embedded in the trade winds flow is\nmoving across the region producing isolated to scattered passing\nshowers. \nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient associated with high \npressure over the western Atlantic and low pressure over Colombia\nwill continue to sustain fresh to strong trade winds and rough \nseas across the south-central Caribbean through much of the \nforecast period. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will \nprevail over most of the rest of the basin, aside from the \nnorthwest portion where lesser winds will dominate. A tropical \nwave will move into the far eastern Caribbean early next week, \nenhancing the trade wind flow across those waters. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nThree tropical wave are moving westward between W Africa and the\nLesser Antilles. Please, see the Tropical Waves section for more\ndetails.\nA weak 1018 mb low is about 480 nm east-southeast of Bermuda near\n30N56W. A surface trough extends from the low center to 27N60W to\n28N66W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active near \nthese features. Similar convective activity is observed north of\n24N east of 70W. A surface through is analyzed in this area and\nextends from 29N74W to 24N80W. A diffluent pattern aloft is also\nhelping to induce this convection. Elsewhere west of 55W, the \nsubtropical ridge dominates, anchored by 1021 mb high pressure \nbetween Bermuda and the central Bahamas near 25N67W. Fresh E to \nSE winds are funneling along the north coast of Hispaniola south \nof the ridge, supporting 3 to 5 ft seas. The remainder of the \nAtlantic forecast region is under the influence of a ridge with \na 1028 mb high pressure located SW of the Azores near 35N37W. \nThis system supports moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of \n5 to 7 ft, except fresh to locally strong NE winds and rough seas\noff the coasts of Mauritania and Senegal.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will support\nmostly light to gentle winds over most of the waters north of \n23N into early next week. Moderate to fresh trades are expected \nsouth of about 23N, highest off northern Hispaniola, through the \nperiod. These trades may pulse to fresh to strong speeds off \nnorthern Hispaniola at night through most of the forecast period.\nMeanwhile, the northern portion of a tropical wave is expected \nto move through the eastern portion of the area early next week \nenhancing the trades some. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1203510183593115650", "issued": "2026-08-21T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1203510183593115650"}