{"msg": "719\nAXPZ20 KNHC 212105\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Fri Aug 21 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2100 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURE...\nCentral East Pacific (EP91): A trough of low pressure located several \nhundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California \nPeninsula is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. \nEnvironmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development,\nand a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early\nnext week before it interacts, or possibly merges with, the disturbance\nto its east. This system has a medium chance for tropical cyclone\nformation through 48 hrs, and a high chance through 7 days.\nPlease refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at \nwebsite: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more \ndetails on these systems.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is moving over eastern portions of the Tropical \nPacific basin with axis along 91W, N of 03N, moving westward at \n15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is along the wave axis\nfrom 05N to 12N between 90W and 95W. \nA broad area of low pressure is along a tropical wave with axis \nnear 105W. This system is moving west-northwestward and could \nbecome a tropical depression over the weekend or early next week \nbefore it interacts, or possibly merges with, the disturbance to \nits west (EP91). Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection\nis noted from 05N to 17N between 95W and 112W. This system has a\nlow chance for tropical cyclone formation through 48 hrs, and a \nmedium chance through 7 days.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 10N105W to 06N135W. The\nITCZ continues from 06N135W to 08N140W. Aside from the convection\nrelated to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate\nto isolated strong convection is observed from 05N to 07N between\n78W and 81W, and from 04N to 12N W of 112W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nA ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California\nproducing gentle to moderate NW to N winds with moderate seas,\nwith the exception of moderate to locally fresh winds in the\nvicinity of Cabo San Lucas. Light to gentle winds and slight \nseas prevail across the Gulf of California. High pressure over \neast-central Mexico, combined with a surface trough moving \nacross the Bay of Campeche, supports fresh to strong N gap winds\nacross the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downwind to about 14N. Seas \nare up to 8 ft with these winds. Light to gentle winds and \nmoderate seas are noted across the remainder of the Mexican \noffshore waters. Fresh to strong E to SE are noted just off the \noffshore waters from 10N to 13N between 100W and 105W behind a \ntropical wave located along 105W. \nFor the forecast, fresh northerly gap winds will continue to pulse\nto strong speeds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the overnight\ninto the early morning hours through Sun night, with seas occasionally\nbuilding to 8 ft. A ridge will continue to dominate the offshore\nforecast waters of Baja California this weekend supporting mainly\ngentle to moderate winds. Southerly wind flow will return to the\nGulf of California Sat night and become fresh to locally strong\nover the north and central parts of the Gulf on Sun. Winds and seas\nare expected to build across the outer offshore waters of southwestern\nMexico into early next week in association with a developing area\nof low pressure moving west-northwestward and just outside of the\noffshore waters.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nRecent satellite scatterometer data show fresh to strong NE to E\ngap winds across the Papagayo region and downwind to near 89W, \nwhere seas are 6 to 8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds are found \nelsewhere, with moderate seas in S swell. \nFor the forecast, high pressure will persist over the eastern Gulf\nof America and northwestern Caribbean into early next week, leading\nto fresh NE to E gap winds pulsing to strong speeds over the Papagayo\nregion each evening and night. Moderate to fresh winds extending\nwell downwind of Papagayo will impact the outer waters offshore \nof El Salvador and Guatemala through at least early next week. \nSouth of the monsoon trough, gentle to locally moderate winds will\npersist this weekend into early next week. Mainly moderate seas \nwill prevail away from the Gulf of Papagayo through the next several\ndays. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section and the Tropical Waves \nsection above for information on systems that have the potential\nfor tropical cyclone formation. \nHigh pressure across the NE Pacific extends a ridge southeastward\ninto the regional waters to offshore of Baja California. A surface\ntrough is analyzed over the NW corner of the forecast region and\nruns from 28N139W to beyond 26N140W. Moderate to fresh NE to E \nwinds are noted near the northern end of the trough axis due to \nthe pressure gradient between the trough and high pressure to \nthe N. Fresh easterly winds and seas to 7 ft in the periphery of \nTropical Depression Two-C in the Central Pacific basin are \nimpacting the waters between 15N to 19N and W of 138W based on \nscatterometer data. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh winds \nare found south of about 07N between 100W and 120W with moderate \nto locally rough seas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas\nin mixed swell prevail elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, regardless of tropical cyclone development, the\nfeatures described above are forecast to bring increasing winds \nand seas roughly across the waters S of 20N between 100W and 120W\nthis weekend. Little change is expected in the marine conditions\nelsewhere.\nLooking ahead, another area of low pressure is expected to develop\nwell south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula \nduring the middle portion of next week. Some slow development is \nexpected thereafter while the system moves generally west- \nnorthwestward. This system has a low chance for tropical cyclone\nformation through 7 days.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1203489733372870658", "issued": "2026-08-21T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1203489733372870658"}