{"id": "1203484262599786498", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-21T21:00:00Z", "msg": "877\nWTPA43 PHFO 212037\nTCDCP3\n \nTropical Storm Moke Discussion Number   6\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP022026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 AM HST Fri Aug 21 2026\n\nData from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the\ndepression has strengthened. Dropsonde data suggest that the\nminimum pressure is around 1002 mb and the flight-level wind\ninformation supports an initial wind speed of about 40 kt, making\nthe system Tropical Storm Moke. Moke is gradually becoming better\norganized in satellite images, with curved bands showing improved\nstructure north of the center.\n \nThere has not been any significant change to the track forecast\nphilosophy. A low- to mid-level ridge is expected to strengthen to\nthe north of the storm during the next few days, and that should\ncause Moke to move a little faster to the west-northwest. This\nmotion should cause the core of system to pass to the south of the\nHawaiian Islands late this weekend and early next week. Since Moke\nis also forecast to be a compact storm, no tropical storm watches\nor warnings are required based on the current predictions.\nHowever, the storm will very likely be close enough to produce some\nwind, rain, and surf impacts, see the Key Messages below for \ndetails. The NHC track forecast is again largely an update of the \nprevious one, and remains on the north side of the guidance \nenvelope.\n \nMoke has another day or so to strengthen while it remains in \ngenerally favorable environmental conditions. However, most of the \nmodels show the storm entraining dry air while it moves into a \nregion of higher shear late this weekend and early next week. Those \nenvironmental conditions should cause the storm to gradually weaken \nbeginning in about 36 hours, and it could even dissipate toward the \nend of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast lies at the \nhigh end of the model guidance. Based on the environmental \nconditions and model spread, there remains high confidence that Moke \nwill stay below hurricane strength.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Heavy rainfall associated with Moke will begin to impact\nthe Big Island of Hawaii late Saturday night, with rain spreading\nwestward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands Sunday into\nMonday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and\nmudslides for the windward and southeast Big Island, especially in\nsteep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala.\n \n2. Although the strongest winds associated with Moke are expected to\npass south of the Hawaiian Islands, strong gusty winds are likely,\nparticularly in areas within and downslope of higher terrain on the\nBig Island.\n \n3. Swells generated by the storm may cause life-threatening surf\nand rip current conditions this weekend and early next week for\nportions of the Hawaiian Islands.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  21/2100Z 13.9N 147.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  22/0600Z 14.5N 148.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  22/1800Z 15.1N 150.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  23/0600Z 15.7N 152.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  23/1800Z 16.1N 155.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 60H  24/0600Z 16.4N 158.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  24/1800Z 16.8N 160.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  25/1800Z 17.7N 165.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n120H  26/1800Z 18.5N 169.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n \n"}