{"msg": "843\nAXPZ20 KNHC 211559\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Fri Aug 21 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1500 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURE...\nCentral East Pacific (EP91): An area of low pressure located \nseveral hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja \nCalifornia Peninsula is producing disorganized showers and \nthunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for \ngradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form \nthis weekend or early next week while the system moves west-\nnorthwestward or northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. This system has a \nmedium chance for tropical cyclone formation through 48 hrs, and\na high chance through 7 days.\nPlease refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at \nwebsite: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more \ndetails on these systems.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is moving over eastern portions of the Tropical \nPacific basin with axis along 90W, N of 03N, moving westward at \n15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is along the wave axis\nfrom 05N to 11N between 96W and 110W. \nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 104W, N of 05N, moving westward\nat 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection\nis noted from 04N to 17N between 96W and 110W. This system is moving \nwest-northwestward and could become a tropical depression over \nthe weekend or early next week before it interacts, or possibly \nmerges with, a disturbance to its west (EP91).  This system has a \nlow chance for tropical cyclone formation through 48 hrs, and a \nmedium chance through 7 days.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 10N104W to 06N125W to \n08N136W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves \ndescribed above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection\nis observed from 05N to 07N between 78W and 81W, and from 04N to\n12N W of 128W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nA ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California\nproducing gentle to moderate NW to N winds with moderate seas.\nLight to gentle winds and slight seas prevail across the Gulf of\nCalifornia. High pressure over east-central Mexico and a surface\ntrough moving across the Bay of Campeche support fresh to strong\nN gap winds across the Gulf of Tehunatepec and downwind to about\n14N. Seas are up to 8 ft with these winds. Light to gentle winds\nand moderate seas are noted across the remainder of the Mexican\noffshore waters. Fresh to strong E to SE are just off the offshore\nwaters 10N to 13N between 97W and 103W behind a tropical wave\nlocated along 104W. \nFor the forecast, fresh northerly gap winds will continue to pulse\nto strong speeds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the overnight\ninto the early morning hours through Sun night, with seas occasionally\nbuilding to rough. A ridge will continue to dominate the offshore\nforecast waters of Baja California this weekend supporting mainly\ngentle to moderate winds. Southerly wind flow will return to the\nGulf of California Sat night and become fresh to locally strong \nSun. Winds and seas are expected to build across the outer offshore\nwaters of southwestern Mexico into early next week in association\nwith a developing area of low pressure moving west-northwestward\nor northwestward and just outside of the offshore waters.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nLatest satellite scatterometer data shows fresh to strong NE to \nE gap winds across the Papagayo region and downwind to near 90W,\nwhere seas are 6 to 8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds are found \nelsewhere, with moderate seas in S swell. \nFor the forecast, high pressure will persist over the eastern\nGulf of America and northwestern Caribbean into early next week, \nleading to fresh NE to E gap winds pulsing to strong speeds over\nthe Papagayo region each evening and night. Moderate to fresh \nwinds extending well downwind of Papagayo will impact the outer \nwaters offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala through at least \nearly next week. South of the monsoon trough, winds will gradually\ndiminish and remain light to gentle through the weekend. Mainly \nmoderate seas will prevail away from the Gulf of Papagayo through\nthe next several days. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section and the Tropical Waves \nsection above for information on systems that have the potential\nfor tropical cyclone formation, and any associated convection \ncurrently present leading to higher winds and seas.\nHigh pressure across the NE Pacific extends a ridge southeastward\ninto the regional waters to offshore of Baja California. Fresh \neasterly winds and seas to 7 ft are noted in the periphery of \nTropical Depression Two-C in the Central Pacific basin are \nimpacting the waters between 15N to 20N and W of 138W. Elsewhere,\nmoderate to locally fresh winds are found N of 15N and W of \n125W, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and\nmoderate seas in mixed swell prevail elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, regardless of tropical cyclone development, \nthe features described above will bring increasing winds and seas\nto the waters south of 25N, as they move south of the current \nridge in place. Away from these features, little change is expected\nin marine weather through the next several days, except for the \nrough seas over the southern waters, which are forecast to fully \nsubside by the start of the weekend.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1203429649819107330", "issued": "2026-08-21T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1203429649819107330"}