{"id": "1203417792962723842", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-21T15:00:00Z", "msg": "503\nWTPA43 PHFO 211459\nTCDCP3\n \nTropical Depression Two-C Discussion Number   5\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP022026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 AM HST Fri Aug 21 2026\n\nSatellite and microwave imagery depicts deeper convective bands \nassociated Two-C north of the center. The latest subjective \nintensity estimates from HFO and JTWC are T2.0/30 kt and T1.5/25 kt, \nwhich correlates well with the objective intensity estimates from \nUW-CIMSS, supporting around 30 kt intensities as well. Based on \nthese estimates, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. Later \ntoday, NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft are scheduled to \ninvestigate Two-C. \n \nThe depression is maintaining a west-northwestward track of 295/9 \nkt, and that is expected to persist as the cyclone progresses south \nof the Hawaiian Islands. The latest model guidance showcases a more \nwestward track through the weekend as broad ridging builds in the \nCentral Pacific just north of the Hawaiian Islands. The latest NHC \ntrack forecast is largely just an update of the previous one, \nand a blend of the consensus models and the guidance of the Google \nDeepMind ensemble mean.\n\nThe latest model and satellite trends suggest Two-C will likely \nstrengthen over the next 48 h, as environmental conditions remain \ngenerally favorable. While the cyclone will experience light, \nsouthwesterly shear during the early portion of its life cycle, \nsignificantly warmer SSTs and a relatively moist atmosphere will \nhelp counter any negative shear effects. However, multi-model \nintensity consensus and SHIPS intensity guidance portray gradual \nweakening thereafter as the cyclone should succumb to increasing \nvertical wind shear and drier relative humidity values. \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Heavy rainfall associated with the system will begin to impact \nthe Big Island of Hawaii late Saturday night, with rain spreading \nwestward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands Sunday into \nMonday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and \nmudslides for the windward and southeast Big Island, especially in \nsteep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala.\n \n2. Although the strongest winds associated with the system are \nexpected to pass south of the Hawaiian Islands, strong gusty winds \nare likely, particularly in areas within and downslope of higher \nterrain on the Big Island. \n\n3. Swells generated by the system may cause life-threatening surf \nand rip current conditions this weekend and early next week for \nportions of the Hawaiian Islands.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  21/1500Z 13.4N 146.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  22/0000Z 13.9N 147.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  22/1200Z 14.7N 149.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  23/0000Z 15.4N 151.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  23/1200Z 15.9N 153.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 60H  24/0000Z 16.2N 156.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  24/1200Z 16.6N 159.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  25/1200Z 17.7N 164.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n120H  26/1200Z 18.5N 168.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n \n"}