{"msg": "565\nAXNT20 KNHC 211414\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Fri Aug 21 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1400 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed near 19W/20W \nbased on satellite imagery and on model diagnostics. It is moving \nwestward at 10-15 kt. Satellite imagery continues to show an ill-\ndefined mid- level cyclonic circulation near 12N19W. Increasing \nscattered showers and thunderstorms are near the wave from 09N to\n12N between 19W and 21W.\nAn eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 41W south of\n20N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is\nnoted near this wave.\nA central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 51W south of \n20N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is\nnoted near this wave.\nA central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W south of 20N. It \nis moving westward at about 15 kt. A few thunderstorms are active\nnear 15N76W.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W and continues \nsouthwestward to 14N20W, then to 11N50W. The ITCZ extends from\n11N55W to 11N63W. Outside of convection associated with tropical \nwave, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within \n60 nm south of the trough between 32W-35W. Scattered moderate \nconvection is from 10N to 12N between 31W and 38W, and from 09N to\n12N between 45W and 48W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA mid to upper-level trough stretches from Georgia southward along\nthe Florida peninsula. Associated showers and thunderstorms are\nactive over the north-central Gulf and off far southwest Florida\nalong a surface trough. Another surface trough is analyzed over\nthe far southwest Gulf off Veracruz. A 1018 mb high pressure area\nis centered over the central Gulf. This pattern is supporting\nmoderate SE winds over the southwest where seas are 3-5 ft. Light\nto gentle breezes and 1-3 ft are noted elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, relatively weak high pressure centered over the\ncentral Gulf will prevail through early next week. A weak\npressure pattern will support mostly gentle to moderate winds\nand slight to locally moderate seas across much of the basin. A\nsurface trough will generate fresh to locally strong winds north\nand west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings. These\nwinds will spread westward away from the peninsula at night as\nthe trough migrates into the SW Gulf.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nSee Tropical Waves section above for information on convection \nacross the basin.\nThe pressure gradient between weak high pressure centered S of \nBermuda and low pressure over northern Colombia is supporting \nfresh to strong trades over the south- central basin, with \nmoderate to fresh trades elsewhere, except gentle over the NW \nbasin. Seas are moderate, except 7 to 9 ft in the south-central \nportion and slight seas over the northwest Caribbean.\nFor the forecast, the pattern will continue to sustain fresh to \nstrong trade winds and rough seas across the south-central \nCaribbean through much of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh \ntrades and moderate seas will prevail over the north-central and \neastern Caribbean through the weekend and into early next week. A \ntropical wave will move across the tropical Atlantic and into the \nfar eastern Caribbean early next week enhancing the trade wind \nflow across those waters. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and\nslight to moderate seas are expected. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA weak 1018 mb low is about 480 nm east-southeast of Bermuda near\n30N56W, connected by a trough to another low pressure area farther\nto the northeast. A second trough is southeast of the first,\nextending from 30N49W to 26N65W. Scattered to numerous showers \nand thunderstorms are active near these features under diffluent\nflow aloft between an upper low to the southeast and an upper\nridge to the northwest. Farther west, scattered showers and\nthunderstorms are also active north of 25N east of an upper trough\nextending across the Florida peninsula. Elsewhere west of 55W, the\nsubtropical ridge dominates, anchored by 1021 mb high pressure\nbetween Bermuda and the central Bahamas near 26N68W. Fresh E to SE\nwinds are funneling along the north coast of Hispaniola south of\nthe ridge, supporting 3-5 ft seas. Elsewhere west of 55W, the \npattern is supporting gentle to moderate breezes and 2-4 ft.\nFarther east, 1028 mb high pressure is centered over southwest of\nthe Azores, supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 5-7 ft\nseas, except fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas off the \ncoast of Mauritania and Senegal.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will \nsupport mostly light to gentle winds over most of the waters north\nof 23N going into early next week. Moderate to fresh trades are \nexpected south of about 23N, especially off northern Hispaniola \nthrough the period. These trades may pulse to fresh to strong \nspeeds off northern Hispaniola at night through most of the \nforecast period. Meanwhile, the northern portion of a tropical \nwave is expected to move through the eastern portion of the area \nearly next week enhancing the trades some. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1203409062500794370", "issued": "2026-08-21T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1203409062500794370"}