{"msg": "385\nAXNT20 KNHC 211045\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Fri Aug 21 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1030 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA new far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed near 17W\nbased on satellite imagery and on model diagnostics. It is moving\nwestward near 15 kt. Satellite imagery shows an ill-defined mid-\nlevel cyclonic circulation near 11N17W. Increasing scattered\nshowers and thunderstorms are west of the wave to near 21N from\n08N to 10N.\nAn eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 37W south of \n21N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Increasing scattered moderate\nconvection is within 150 nm either side of the wave from 08N to \n09N and from 12N to 14N.\nA central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 48W south of \n19N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Increasing scattered moderate\nto isolated strong convection is east of the wave to near 45W and \nfrom 10N to 13N.\nA central Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W south of 19N. It \nis moving westward at about 15 kt. No significant convection is\noccurring with this wave.\nA western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 87W south of \n20N to inland Central America, and reaches farther south to the \neastern Pacific Ocean. It is moving westward at around 15 kt.\nScattered moderate convection has recently formed over the\nnorthwest portion of Honduras, and near its coast behind the wave.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W and continues \nsouthwestward to 10N22W, then to 12N30W to 11N40W and to 10N49W, \nwhere it transitions to the ITCZ to 10N55W and to 10N60W. Outside \nof convection associated with tropical wave, scattered moderate to\nisolated strong convection is within 60 nm south of the trough \nbetween 32W-35W. Scattered moderate convection is south of the \ntrough from 06N to 10N between 29W-33W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA mid to upper-level trough stretches from southeastern Georgia \nto the NE Gulf and to the northern Yucatan Peninsula. A mid-level \nlow is near 27N86W. To the southwest of these features, broad \nmid to upper-level anticyclonic flow covers the basin south of \nabout 27N. Plenty of instability is in place over most of the \neastern Gulf providing favorable conditions for the trough \nand low to aid in the development of additional showers and \nthunderstorms over the NE Gulf through Sat, and in addition as a \ncouple of shortwave troughs swing eastward across this same part of \nthe Gulf.\n \nOtherwise, relatively weak high pressure across the basin supported \nby a 1017 mb high center at 26N91W is providing for generally light \nto gentle anticyclonic winds throughout, except for fresh to strong \nNE winds west of the Yucatan Peninsula due the pressure gradient \nassociated with a diurnal trough. Seas are generally 3 ft or less.\nFor the forecast, the aforementioned weak high pressure centered \nover the central Gulf will prevail over the basin through early \nnext week. A weak pressure pattern will support mostly gentle to \nmoderate winds and slight to locally moderate seas across much of \nthe basin. A surface trough will generate fresh to locally strong \nwinds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early \nevenings. These winds will spread westward away from the peninsula\nat night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nSee Tropical Waves section above for information on convection \nacross the basin.\nThe pressure gradient between weak high pressure centered S of \nBermuda and low pressure over northern Colombia is supporting \nfresh to strong trades over the south- central basin between 69W \nand 75W, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere, except gentle \nover the NW basin. Seas are moderate, except 7 to 9 ft in the \nsouth-central portion as noted in overnight satellite altimeter \ndata passes. Slight sea state over the northwest part of the sea.\nIsolated showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted south of \n14N east of 70W.\nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient associated to relatively \nweak high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to \nsustain fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the \nsouth-central Caribbean through much of the forecast period. \nModerate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail over the \nnorth- central and eastern Caribbean through the weekend and into \nearly next week. A tropical wave will move across the tropical \nAtlantic and into the far eastern Caribbean early next week \nenhancing the trade wind flow across those waters. Elsewhere, \nmoderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are \nexpected. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nSee Tropical Waves section for information on convection in deep\ntropics. \nA weak 1018 mb low is just north of the area near 33N51W, with a \ntrough extending southwestward to another weak low of 1017 mb near\n30N56W. The trough continues from this low to near 27N65W. \nScattered thunderstorms are along and near the trough and 1017 mb \nlow from 27N to 30N between 55W and 58W. Isolated showers and \nthunderstorms are present elsewhere north of 25N between 55W and \n78W. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of \nsubtropical ridging, generally allowing for moderate or weaker \nwinds and seas, except for a belt of moderate to fresh trades \nbetween 12N and 22N, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Fresh to locally \nstrong north to northeast winds prevail across the northeastern \nwaters from the Canary Islands southward to near 18N and east of \nabout 22W. Seas over these waters are 6 to 9 ft.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the weak pressure gradient in place\nwill support mostly light to gentle winds over most of the waters\nnorth of 23N going into early next week. Moderate to fresh trades\nare expected south of about 23N, especially off northern \nHispaniola through the period. These trades may pulse to fresh to \nstrong speeds off northern Hispaniola at night through most of the\nforecast period. Meanwhile, the northern portion of tropical wave\nis expected to move through the eastern portion of the area early\nnext week enhancing the trades some. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1203367856062300162", "issued": "2026-08-21T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1203367856062300162"}