{"id": "1203345721895124994", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-21T09:00:00Z", "msg": "297\nWTPA42 PHFO 210852\nTCDCP2\n \nHurricane Lala Discussion Number  36\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 PM HST Thu Aug 20 2026\n\nA ragged eye has reappeared in infrared satellite imagery, which\nresulted in subjective Dvorak estimates from HFO and JTWC bumping\nup to T4.5/77 kt and T5.0/90 kt, respectively. The initial intensity \nis therefore estimated to be 85 kt, which is also near the middle \nof the range of objective estimates from UW-CIMSS (75-95 kt).\n\nLala's center has passed Laysan Island and is now beginning to move \naway from the islands of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National \nMonument. The hurricane is interacting with a mid- to upper-level \ntrough to its northwest, which has induced a north-northeastward \nmotion of 020/8 kt. This motion should continue through early \nFriday, but a relatively quick turn to the north and then northwest \nis expected late Friday and early Saturday when Lala rotates around \nto the northern side of the trough. A developing mid-tropospheric \nhigh south of the Aleutian Islands should then keep Lala on a slow \nnorthwestward trajectory through Tuesday. Mainly as a result of \nLala turning more to the north-northeast than previously expected, \nthe track guidance has shifted a bit to the right on this cycle. \nThe new NHC track forecast blends the previous forecast with the \nlatest TVCN, HCCA, and GDMI aids.\n\nVarious shear diagnostics suggest that the trough near Lala is \ncausing 30-40 kt of deep-layer southwesterly shear over the \nhurricane, but this is apparently being compensated by strong \nupper-level divergence. These conditions are expected to flip in \nthe next 24-36 hours, with shear decreasing significantly and \nupper-level divergence becoming more neutral. Lala will also \ngradually move over cooler waters in the coming days, with sea \nsurface temperatures falling below 26 degrees Celsius in 2 to 3 \ndays. As a result, only slow weakening is anticipated for much of \nthe 5-day forecast period, and the NHC intensity forecast most \nclosely follows the gradual trend shown by the IVCN intensity \nconsensus. By day 5, mid-level moisture and instability, along with \nrelatively low shear, could still be sufficient enough to support \nsome deep convection and keep Lala going as a tropical cyclone, but \nthe storm will probably be getting very close to becoming \npost-tropical.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  21/0900Z 26.6N 171.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  21/1800Z 28.1N 171.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  22/0600Z 29.8N 171.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  22/1800Z 30.9N 172.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  23/0600Z 31.8N 173.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 60H  23/1800Z 32.5N 174.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  24/0600Z 33.1N 175.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  25/0600Z 34.6N 176.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  26/0600Z 36.6N 178.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n \n"}