{"msg": "236\nAXPZ20 KNHC 210848\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Fri Aug 21 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0830 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURE...\nAn area of low pressure has developed in the tropical wave\nenvironment, analyzed along 115W. The low is centered near \n08.5N115W, with minimum pressure of 1009 mb. An area of \ndisorganized showers and thunderstorms prevails from 02N to 16N \nbetween 110W and 119W. Environmental conditions appear favorable\nfor gradual development, and a tropical depression could form \nthis weekend or early next week while the system moves west- \nnorthwestward or northwestward at 5 to 10 kt. This system has a \nmedium chance for tropical formation within 48 hrs, and a high \nchance in 7 days.\nPlease refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at \nwebsite: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more \ndetails on these systems.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is moving over eastern portions of \nthe Tropical Pacific basin along 87W, N of 03N, moving westward \nat 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis.\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 102W, N of 05N, moving \nwestward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection \nstretches from 06N to 15N between 95W and 107W. Environmental \nconditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a \ntropical depression could form late this weekend or early next \nweek while the system moves northwestward, remaining well \noffshore of Mexico. This system has a medium chance for tropical \nformation within the next 7 days.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N136W. Aside from \nthe convection related to the tropical waves described above, \nscattered moderate convection is noted within 200 nm on either \nside of the trough.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information\non a tropical wave that has a potential for tropical development\noffshore Mexico this upcoming weekend, and for related\nconvection. \nA modest pressure gradient continues across the Gulf of\nTehuantepec area, is producing strong N to NE gap winds in the \nGulf and downstream to near 13N98W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across \nthat area. Across the remainder of the offshore waters of Mexico,\ntypical ridging has been disrupted by a low level trough \noffshore of Punta Eugenia, along about 118W, resulting in a weak \npressure gradient across the region. Latest scatterometer data \nshowed that this pattern is producing light to gentle NW to N \nwinds, except moderate near Cabo Corrientes. Seas are 4 to 5 ft \nacross the waters away from the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle \nsoutherly winds prevail across the far northern Gulf of \nCalifornia, and become gentle NW to N across the remainder of the\nGulf. Seas there are 1 to 3 ft. An upper level trough extending \noffshore of SW Mexico continues to support clusters of strong \nthunderstorms along the coasts and nearshore waters of Guerrero \nand Michoacan, and continue to shift westward, in the vicinity of\nthe tropical wave along 102W.\nFor the forecast, fresh northerly gap winds will continue to \npulse to strong winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the \novernight into the early morning hours through the next several \ndays, with seas occasionally building to rough. High pressure \nwill begin to build back modestly across the Baja offshore waters\nthis afternoon through Sat night to produce a more typical \nmoderate to fresh NW wind flow there. Southerly wind flow will \nreturn to the Gulf of California Sat night and become fresh to \nlocally strong Sun. Winds and seas are expected to build across \nthe outer offshore waters of southwestern Mexico into early next\nweek in association with a developing area of low pressure \nmoving westward and just outside of the offshore waters.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nRefer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on any\nconvection.\nRecent satellite scatterometer data shows fresh to strong NE to E \ngap extending across the Papagayo region to near 90W, where seas\nare 5 to 7 ft. Fresh easterly winds then continue westward and \ndownstream, and S of 12.5N, across the outer offshore waters of \nEl Salvador and Guatemala, where seas are 6 to 7 ft. Moderate or\nweaker winds are found elsewhere, with fresh winds near the \nborder of Peru and Ecuador close to the entrance to the Gulf of \nGuayaquil. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across the remainder of the waters \nnorth of 04N, and 6 to 8 ft south of 04N. Clusters of strong \nthunderstorms are over the waters of Panama and Costa Rica, due \nto the passing tropical wave and the monsoon trough.\nFor the forecast, high pressure will persist over the eastern\nGulf of America and northwestern Caribbean into early next week, \nleading to fresh NE to E gap winds pulsing to strong winds over \nthe Papagayo region each evening and night. Moderate to fresh \nwinds extending well downwind of Papagayo will impact the outer \nwaters offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala through at least \nearly next week. South of the monsoon trough, winds will \ngradually diminish and remain light to gentle through the\nweekend. Mainly moderate seas will prevail away from the Gulf of\nPapagayo area through the next several days. Southeasterly swell\nproducing rough seas across the southern waters will subside\ntoday.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section and the Tropical Waves \nsection above for information on systems that have the potential\nfor tropical cyclone formation, and any associated convection \ncurrently present leading to higher winds and seas.\nHigh pressure across the NE Pacific extends a ridge south- \nsoutheastward into the regional waters to offshore of Baja Surf.\nFresh easterly winds and seas to 7 ft are noted in the periphery\nof Tropical Depression Two-C in the Central Pacific basin are \nimpacting the waters between 15N to 20N and W of 135W. \nElsewhere, moderate to fresh trades are found from 10N to 22N \nbetween 125W and 140W, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Moderate to \nfresh winds are found south of 06N to the east of 118W and south \nof 04N to the west of 120W. Rough seas over the southern waters \nare gradually subsiding, and now cover the waters south of 02.5N \nE of 120W.\nFor the forecast, regardless of tropical development, the \nfeatures described above will bring increasing winds and seas to\narea waters south of 25N, as they move south of the current \nridge in place. Away from these features, little change is \nexpected in marine weather through the next several days, except \nfor the rough seas over the southern waters, which are forecast \nto fully subside by the start of the weekend.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1203344974530674690", "issued": "2026-08-21T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1203344974530674690"}