{"id": "1203344057019170818", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-21T09:00:00Z", "msg": "135\nWTPA43 PHFO 210844\nTCDCP3\n \nTropical Depression Two-C Discussion Number   4\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP022026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 PM HST Thu Aug 20 2026\n \nSatellite imagery indicates that the convective coverage associated \nwith Tropical Depression Two-C has changed little during the past \nseveral hours. Much of the deep convection remains positioned north \nof the low-level circulation. This steady satellite presentation, \ncombined with the generally unchanged intensity estimates from HFO, \nJTWC, and UW-CIMSS, supports maintaining the initial intensity at 30 \nkt for this advisory. Both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance \naircraft are scheduled to investigate the cyclone on Friday.\n \nThe initial motion is estimated to be 290/9 kt, and this general\nmotion is expected to persist into the weekend while the cyclone\nremains on the southern side of the subtropical ridge. A gradual\nturn toward the west is forecast later in the weekend as the ridge\nbuilds to the north of the system. Track guidance remains in\ngenerally good agreement, although some cross-track spread persists\nas the cyclone approaches and passes south of the Hawaiian Islands\nthis weekend and into early next week. The updated NHC forecast is \nslightly south of the previous forecast, and lies closer to the \nconsensus and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean.  \n\nEnvironmental conditions appear favorable for gradual strengthening \nduring the next few days as the depression approaches the Hawaiian \nIslands. The cyclone is forecast to stay over warm waters and within \na moist environment with light to moderate vertical wind shear. The \nNHC intensity forecast remains near the upper end of the intensity \nguidance and shows a gradual weakening trend beginning by early next \nweek due to drier mid-level air and increasing vertical wind shear.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Tropical Depression Two-C is expected to strengthen while it \nmoves west-northwestward toward the vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands \nover the next couple of days.\n \n2. Heavy rainfall associated with the tropical depression will \nbegin to impact the Big Island of Hawaii late Saturday night, \nspreading westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands \nSunday into Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening \nflooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain and over areas \nthat were affected recently by Lala.  \n \n3. There is a risk of wind and wave impacts in the Hawaiian Islands \nregardless of the exact track and intensity of the system. Residents \nshould closely monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure that \nthey have their preparedness plan in place.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  21/0900Z 13.0N 145.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  21/1800Z 13.5N 146.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  22/0600Z 14.3N 148.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  22/1800Z 15.1N 150.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  23/0600Z 15.8N 153.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 60H  23/1800Z 16.3N 156.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  24/0600Z 16.6N 158.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  25/0600Z 17.3N 163.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n120H  26/0600Z 18.3N 167.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n \n"}