{"msg": "123\nAXNT20 KNHC 210440\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Fri Aug 21 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0437 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W, south of 21N, \nmoving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderated isolated \nstrong convection is present from 07N to 14N and between 28W and \n40W. \nA central Atlantic tropical wave is along 46W, south of 18N, \nmoving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is \nobserved from 09N to 14N and between 40W and 50W.\nA Caribbean tropical wave is along 70W, south of 19N, moving \nwestward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is depicted in\nassociation with this wave.\nA western Caribbean tropical wave is along 85.5W, south of 20N, \nmoving westward at around 15 kt. Associated convection is limited \nover Central America, while area Caribbean waters are rain free.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N17W and continues \nsouthwestward to 12N25W and to 11N50W. The ITCZ extends from \n11N50W to 10N60W. Outside of convection associated with tropical \nwave, scattered moderate convection is occurring from 02N to 07N \nand east of 26W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA deep layered upper level low over N Florida extends into the far\nNW Caribbean and is supporting scattered moderate convection \nacross the eastern Gulf. At the surface, 1017 mb high pressure \ncentered near 25N89W dominates the basin with light to gentle \nanticyclonic winds, except for fresh to strong NE winds west of \nthe Yucatan Peninsula due the pressure gradient associated with a \ntrough. Seas are generally 3 ft or less.\nFor the forecast, relatively weak high pressure centered over the\ncentral Gulf will prevail over the basin through early next week.\nA weak pressure pattern will support mostly gentle to moderate \nwinds and slight to locally moderate seas across much of the \nbasin. A surface trough will generate fresh to locally strong \nwinds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early \nevenings. These winds will spread westward away from the peninsula\nat night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nSee Tropical Waves section above for information on convection \nacross the basin.\nThe pressure gradient between weak high pressure centered S of \nBermuda and low pressure over northern Colombia is supporting \nfresh to strong trades over the south- central basin between 69W \nand 75W, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere, except gentle \nover the NW basin. Seas are moderate, except 7 to 9 ft in the \nsouth-central portion, and slight in the NW. Saharan Air across \nmost of the basin is aiding in limiting convection.\nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient associated to high \npressure north of the Caribbean will lead to fresh to strong trade\nwinds and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through \nmuch of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate\nseas will prevail over the north- central and eastern Caribbean \nthrough the weekend and into early next week. A tropical wave will\nmove across the tropical Atlantic and into the far eastern \nCaribbean early next week enhancing the trade wind flow across \nthose waters. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to \nmoderate seas are expected. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nSee Tropical Waves section for information on convection in deep\ntropics. \nA trough enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N51W and continues \nsouthwestward to 27N66W. A cluster of moderate isolated strong \nconvection is noted N of 26N between 53W and 58W, while isolated \nshowers are noted along the trough axis. Isolated moderate\nconvection is also depicted north of the Bahamas. The rest of the\nbasin remains under the influence of subtropical ridging, \nsupporting moderate or weaker winds and seas, except for a belt of\nmoderate to fresh trades between 12N and 22N, where seas are 5 to\n7 ft. Fresh to locally strong N to NE wind prevail across the \nnortheastern waters from the Canary Islands southward to 18N and E\nof 22W. Seas there are 5 to 8 ft.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will \nsupport mostly light to gentle winds over most of the waters north\nof 23N going into early next week. Moderate to fresh trades are \nexpected south of about 23N, especially off northern Hispaniola \nthrough the period. These trades may pulse to fresh to strong \nspeeds off northern Hispaniola at night through most of the \nforecast period. Meanwhile, the northern portion of tropical wave \nis expected to move through the eastern portion of the area early \nnext week enhancing the trades some.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1203296183951917058", "issued": "2026-08-21T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1203296183951917058"}