{"msg": "495\nAXPZ20 KNHC 210249\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Fri Aug 21 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0230 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURE...\nAn area of low pressure has developed in the tropical wave\nenvironment, analyzed along 114W. The low is centered near \n07.5N114W, with minimum pressure of 1008 mb. A large area of \ndisorganized showers and thunderstorms prevails from 02N to 16N\nbetween 111W and 120W. Environmental conditions appear favorable\nfor gradual development, and a tropical depression could form \nthis weekend or early next week while the system moves west- \nnorthwestward or northwestward at 5 to 10 kt. THis system has a\nmedium chance for tropical formation within 48 hrs and 7 days.\nPlease refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at \nwebsite: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more \ndetails on these systems.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is moving over eastern portions of \nthe Tropical Pacific basin along 85W, N of 03N, moving westward \nat 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted \nS of 09N and E of 89W.\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 100W, N of 05N, moving \nwestward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection\nstretches from 05N to 15N between 94W and 110W, as the wave \ninteracts with a middle level trough extending off the SW coast \nof Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual \ndevelopment, and a tropical depression is likely to form this \nweekend or early next week while the system moves west-northwestward \nor northwestward, remaining well offshore of Mexico. This system\nhas a high chance for tropical formation within the next 7 days.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N137W. Aside from the\nconvection related to the tropical waves described above,\nscattered moderate convection is noted within 200 nm on either\nside of the trough.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information\non a tropical wave that has a potential for tropical development\noffshore Mexico this upcoming weekend, and for related\nconvection. \nA modest pressure gradient continues across the Gulf of\nTehuantepec area, where the northern portion of a tropical wave \nhas moved W of the Gulf, and is producing strong N to NE gap \nwinds in the Gulf and downstream to near 13N98W. Seas are 5 to 7\nft across that area. Across the remainder of the offshore waters \nof Mexico, typical ridging has been disrupted by a low level \ntrough offshore of Punta Eugenia, along about 118W, resulting in \na weak pressure gradient across the region. Latest scatterometer\ndata showed that this current pattern is producing light to \ngentle NW to N winds, except moderate near Cabo Corrientes. Seas \nare 4 to 5 ft across the waters away from the Gulf of \nTehuantepec. Gentle southerly winds prevail across the far \nnorthern Gulf of California, and become gentle NW to N across the\nremainder of the Gulf. Seas there are 1 to 3 ft. An upper level \ntrough extending offshore of SW Mexico continues to support \nclusters of strong thunderstorms along the coasts and nearshore \nwaters of Guerrero and Michoacan, and continue to shift westward,\nahead of an approaching tropical wave.\nFor the forecast, fresh northerly gap winds will continue to \npulse to strong winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the \novernight into the early morning hours through the next several \ndays, with seas occasionally building to rough. High pressure \nwill begin to build back modestly across the Baja offshore waters\nFri afternoon through Sat night to produce a more typical \nmoderate to fresh NW wind flow there. Southerly wind flow will \nreturn to the Gulf of California Sat night and become fresh to\nlocally strong Sun. Winds and seas are expected to build across \nthe outer offshore waters of southwestern Mexico tonight into \nearly next week in association with a developing area of low \npressure moving westward and just outside of the offshore \nwaters.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nRefer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on any\nconvection.\nRecent satellite scatterometer data shows fresh to strong NE to E \ngap extending across the Papagayo region to near 90W, where seas\nare 5 to 7 ft. Fresh easterly winds then continue westward and \ndownstream, and S of 12.5N, across the outer offshore waters of \nEl Salvador and Guatemala, where seas are 6 to 7 ft. Mainly \nmoderate or weaker winds are found elsewhere, with fresh winds near\nthe border of Peru and Ecuador close to the entrance to the Gulf\nof Guayaquil. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across the remainder of the \nwaters north of 04N, and 6 to 8 ft south of 04N. Clusters of \nstrong thunderstorms are over the waters south of Panama and \nCosta Rica, due to the passing tropical wave there, described \nabove.\nFor the forecast, high pressure will persist over the eastern\nGulf of America and northwestern Caribbean into early next week, \nleading to fresh NE to E gap winds pulsing to strong winds over \nthe Papagayo region each evening and night. Moderate to fresh \nwinds extending well downwind of Papagayo will impact the outer \nwaters offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala through at least \nearly next week. South of the monsoon trough, winds will \ngradually diminish and remain light to gentle through the\nweekend. Mainly moderate seas will prevail away from the Gulf of\nPapagayo area through the next several days. Southeasterly swell\nproducing rough seas across the southern waters will subside\nthis evening through Fri.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section and the Tropical Waves \nsection above for information on systems that have the potential\nfor tropical cyclone formation, and any associated convection \ncurrently present leading to higher winds and seas.\nHigh pressure across the NE Pacific extends a ridge south- \nsoutheastward into the regional waters to offshore of Baja Surf.\nFresh easterly winds and seas to 7 ft are noted in the periphery\nof Tropical Depression Two-C in the Central Pacific basin are \nimpacting the waters between 10N to 20N and W of 135W. Elsewhere, \nmoderate to fresh trades are found from 10N to 22N between 124W \nand 140W , where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh winds are\nfound south of 06N to the east of 118W and south of 04N to the \nwest of 120W. Rough seas over the southern waters are gradually \nsubsiding, and now cover the waters south of 02.5N E of 120W.\nFor the forecast, regardless of tropical development, the \nfeatures described above will bring increasing winds and seas to\narea waters south of 25N, as they move south of the current \nridge in place. Away from these features, little change is \nexpected in marine weather through the next several days, except \nfor the rough seas over the southern waters, which are forecast \nto fully subside by the start of the weekend.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1203274351722135554", "issued": "2026-08-21T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1203274351722135554"}